TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120235
Played Sep 14Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113411911––––
Michal Vondrak
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:24 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Michal Vondrak below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Richard Wagner at 58.1%
59 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 5–7 Michal Vondrak Richard Wagner has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:24What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Vondrak
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1700 vs Vondrak 1680
Wagner
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Vondrak 20%
Wagner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 60% vs Vondrak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -1 · Vondrak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vondrak form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.61 / Vondrak 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Wagner)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120235
Wagner1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 65 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 47 of 60
Vondrak2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 63 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back33% 23 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWagner3wins
AwayVondrak7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVondrak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner33.3%2 of 6
AwayVondrak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner6Vondrak4n = 10Wagner took 6 of 10
S2Wagner3Vondrak7n = 10Vondrak took 7 of 10
S3Wagner3Vondrak7n = 10Vondrak took 7 of 10
S4Wagner7Vondrak1n = 8Wagner took 7 of 8
S5Wagner0Vondrak5n = 5Vondrak took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricWagnerVondrakW − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.341.7−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerVondrakBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 198 vs 313 / 64453%48.6%105 / 198 vs 313 / 644Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.61/Vondrak 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vondrak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 14:00R. Wagner4111741182M. Vondrak46611117113
LAug 9 · 20:30R. Wagner44111271132M. Vondrak52714119113
LAug 9 · 14:30R. Wagner4411891152M. Vondrak47811116113
LAug 1 · 16:00R. Wagner4715771262M. Vondrak5613111110113
WJul 28 · 19:30R. Wagner3711114113M. Vondrak33891151
WJul 28 · 15:00R. Wagner4111811113M. Vondrak28811271
LJul 25 · 16:00R. Wagner179440M. Vondrak331111113
WJul 25 · 11:00R. Wagner4281211113M. Vondrak381110981
LJul 22 · 10:30R. Wagner4071111562M. Vondrak51119911113
LJul 9 · 21:28R. Wagner208480M. Vondrak331111113
R. Wagner10
LSep 14 · 01:30J. Tazler2.001112113R. Wagner1.7391060WSep 14 · 24:00R. Wagner1.9111116113M. Sychra1.80971161WSep 13 · 23:00M. Klement2.38811981R. Wagner1.5311911113WSep 13 · 03:29R. Rose1.8331171182R. Wagner1.83119114113LSep 13 · 02:00R. Wagner1.404890M. Regner2.751111113WSep 13 · 01:00R. Wagner1.8311811113J. Louda1.83911441WSep 13 · 24:00S. Kasnik2.20114981R. Wagner1.6151111113WSep 12 · 22:30R. Rose1.6711981272R. Wagner2.106111110113LSep 9 · 13:30R. Wagner1.54811781F. Pusch2.1811611113LSep 9 · 12:00P. Saleny2.0012119113R. Wagner1.731051171
M. Vondrak10
WSep 14 · 01:00M. Sychra2.001011571M. Vondrak1.7312811113LSep 13 · 23:30M. Vondrak1.5311680J. Tazler2.381311113LSep 13 · 22:00M. Vondrak2.00115111572M. Klement1.73711517113LSep 9 · 21:28J. Louda1.44131112113M. Vondrak2.631591051LSep 9 · 20:00R. Rose1.801111113M. Vondrak1.913180WSep 9 · 19:00J. Louda1.4012811982M. Vondrak2.751011511113WSep 9 · 18:30M. Vondrak1.5711117113M. Sychra2.25971131WSep 4 · 09:30M. Vondrak1.5711155113M. Regner2.259131161WSep 4 · 08:30M. Regner2.10118871M. Vondrak1.6791111113WSep 4 · 07:30M. Vondrak1.401111113J. Stolfa2.759790
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