TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119812
Played Sep 13Finished
Grzegorz Adamiak
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117511711411––
Antoni Witkowski
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:35 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeAntoni Witkowski to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingGrzegorz Adamiak above · Antoni Witkowski below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 67 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Antoni Witkowski at 67.9%
67 points played in total.
H2H Grzegorz Adamiak 6–21 Antoni Witkowski Grzegorz Adamiak has won 6 of their 27 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 18h before this match
Adamiak beat Witkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Witkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-21 in 27
Witkowski
Correct
gap of 15 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamiak 1731 vs Witkowski 1873
Witkowski
Correct
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamiak 20% vs Witkowski 60%
Witkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamiak 30% vs Witkowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamiak -4 · Witkowski -1
Adamiak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Witkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witkowski form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamiak 2.75 / Witkowski 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Witkowski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13119812
Adamiak2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog29% won 66 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back14% 21 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 96
Witkowski1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 79 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it97% 38 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it87% 54 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamiak3wins
AwayWitkowski7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderWitkowski leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamiak40%2 of 5
AwayWitkowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamiak5Witkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Adamiak3Witkowski7n = 10Witkowski took 7 of 10
S3Adamiak2Witkowski8n = 10Witkowski took 8 of 10
S4Adamiak2Witkowski5n = 7Witkowski took 5 of 7
S5Adamiak3Witkowski2n = 5Adamiak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamiakWitkowskiA − WBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.743.5−5.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamiakWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime335 / 768 vs 223 / 38243.6%58.4%335 / 768 vs 223 / 382Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiAdamiak 2.75/Witkowski 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.9%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Witkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 04:10G. Adamiak27115741A. Witkowski4071111113
WSep 12 · 10:25G. Adamiak41111143123A. Witkowski47871111102
LSep 12 · 03:25G. Adamiak53118128142A. Witkowski579111011163
WJul 9 · 05:40G. Adamiak581611911113A. Witkowski5118711692
LMay 9 · 12:50G. Adamiak208660A. Witkowski331111113
LMay 9 · 07:40G. Adamiak33771181A. Witkowski3911116113
LMay 3 · 13:40G. Adamiak28101080A. Witkowski351212113
LMay 3 · 09:35G. Adamiak2814680A. Witkowski381611113
WMay 2 · 12:50G. Adamiak47111258113A. Witkowski44910111132
LFeb 1 · 11:25G. Adamiak4211651372A. Witkowski517111111113
G. Adamiak10
LSep 13 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.758830K. Petas1.251111113LSep 12 · 14:10A. Dosz1.4011118113G. Adamiak2.75951151LSep 12 · 13:20K. Petas1.251111113G. Adamiak3.754570LSep 12 · 11:15S. Dosz1.331081111113G. Adamiak3.2512118762WSep 12 · 10:25A. Witkowski1.40871111102G. Adamiak2.75111143123WSep 12 · 09:00J. Braun1.531110791G. Adamiak2.3891211113WSep 12 · 07:45G. Adamiak3.5091111113K. Petas1.28115671LSep 12 · 06:30G. Adamiak2.382580J. Braun1.531111113LSep 12 · 05:15G. Adamiak2.758780A. Dosz1.401111113LSep 12 · 04:10S. Dosz1.33112511113G. Adamiak3.2561111482
A. Witkowski10
LSep 13 · 03:25A. Witkowski1.576121151J. Zandecki2.2511149113WSep 12 · 13:45S. Dosz2.251178111A. Witkowski1.5791111133WSep 12 · 12:55J. Braun2.2089111182A. Witkowski1.61111169113WSep 12 · 12:05A. Witkowski1.6711118113K. Petas2.10891111LSep 12 · 10:25A. Witkowski1.40871111102G. Adamiak2.75111143123LSep 12 · 09:40A. Dosz1.5313118133A. Witkowski2.3811711111WSep 12 · 08:30S. Dosz2.63541161A. Witkowski1.4411118113LSep 12 · 07:20A. Witkowski2.2511711892A. Dosz1.57711911113LSep 12 · 06:05K. Petas1.831115143A. Witkowski1.83813120LSep 12 · 04:55J. Braun2.20111295113A. Witkowski1.61510111182
Upcoming Matches
G. Adamiak
Sep 13 · 05:40G. Adamiak3.00A. Dosz1.36—Sep 13 · 06:55G. Adamiak3.00S. Dosz1.36—Sep 13 · 08:30G. Adamiak2.50J. Zandecki1.50—Sep 13 · 09:20G. Adamiak3.00S. Dosz1.36—Sep 13 · 10:00G. Adamiak3.00A. Dosz1.36—Sep 13 · 11:15G. Adamiak3.75K. Petas1.25—Sep 13 · 12:30G. Adamiak2.50J. Zandecki1.50—Sep 13 · 13:45G. Adamiak2.75M. Jadczyk1.40—
A. Witkowski
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