TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13116463
Played Sep 11Finished
Krzysztof Zapala
Home
2.55
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
14121214611117811
Karol Guzy
Away
1.41
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 67.6% is still 67.6%
Graded at full timeKarol Guzy to win
67.6%
67.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
106 points played in total.
Set by set
14121214611117811
H2H Krzysztof Zapala 41–68 Karol Guzy Krzysztof Zapala has won 41 of their 109 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:30What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (64%)
Guzy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-68 in 109
Guzy
Correct
gap of 27 in 109, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zapala 1500 vs Guzy 1736
Guzy
Correct
both rated, 236 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zapala 80% vs Guzy 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zapala 40% vs Guzy 90%
Guzy
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zapala +3 · Guzy +1
Zapala
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Guzy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zapala form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (39%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZapala 2.55 / Guzy 1.41
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Guzy)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13116463
Zapala2.55
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 84 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back23% 24 of 106
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 58
Guzy1.41
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 170 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it92% 79 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it82% 134 of 163
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZapala3wins
AwayGuzy7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderGuzy leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZapala50%3 of 6
AwayGuzy100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zapala6Guzy4n = 10Zapala took 6 of 10
S2Zapala4Guzy6n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S3Zapala4Guzy6n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S4Zapala4Guzy4n = 8split evenly
S5Zapala1Guzy4n = 5Guzy took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZapalaGuzyZ − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.745.1−2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZapalaGuzyBasisWin rate · lifetime323 / 715 vs 646 / 107445.2%60.2%323 / 715 vs 646 / 1074Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyZapala 2.55/Guzy 1.41
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.6%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Guzy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 18:30K. Zapala—9121113102K. Guzy—1110915123
LSep 6 · 11:05K. Zapala—781291K. Guzy—111110113
WSep 5 · 17:35K. Zapala—12113113K. Guzy—1081181
LSep 3 · 18:30K. Zapala—10570K. Guzy—1211113
LAug 29 · 21:35K. Zapala—13102313112K. Guzy—11122511133
LAug 27 · 18:30K. Zapala—911691K. Guzy—11811113
LAug 13 · 22:00K. Zapala—111041182K. Guzy—412118113
LAug 13 · 18:30K. Zapala—11691272K. Guzy—8111110113
WAug 12 · 22:40K. Zapala—1111113K. Guzy—6980
WAug 12 · 20:30K. Zapala—176115113K. Guzy—151111192
K. Zapala10
WSep 11 · 18:30T. Stachera2.00611971K. Zapala1.7111811113WSep 11 · 17:30K. Zapala2.3911115143A. Duch1.476811121WSep 11 · 16:30P. Odelski1.508970K. Zapala2.401111113LSep 11 · 16:00K. Zapala2.40138781M. Szymanski1.50111111113WSep 10 · 21:40B. Bartosz2.401123101142K. Zapala1.51825129113LSep 10 · 20:30K. Zapala1.87511812112B. Bartosz1.831191110133LSep 10 · 18:30K. Guzy1.361110915123K. Zapala2.809121113102LSep 10 · 17:30K. Zapala2.1091511882D. Bucko1.601113511113LSep 10 · 16:30A. Duch1.39711116153K. Zapala2.65118511132LSep 10 · 16:00K. Zapala2.608860P. Odelski1.411111113
K. Guzy10
WSep 11 · 22:30K. Guzy1.831112113M. Szymanski1.8741070WSep 11 · 19:30A. Duch1.864480K. Guzy1.781111113LSep 11 · 18:00P. Odelski2.2011117113K. Guzy1.57781161WSep 11 · 15:30M. Szymanski2.2011970K. Guzy1.581311113WSep 11 · 14:00T. Stachera2.951461471K. Guzy1.31121116113WSep 10 · 22:40K. Guzy1.871111138113D. Bucko1.8344151172WSep 10 · 20:00K. Guzy1.8311614123A. Duch1.8691112101WSep 10 · 18:30K. Guzy1.361110915123K. Zapala2.809121113102WSep 10 · 17:00K. Guzy1.761141112113P. Odelski1.90711131092WSep 10 · 15:00K. Guzy1.87411711113D. Bucko1.8311711692
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