TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13116426
Played Sep 11Finished
Adam Duch
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411411811––––
Karol Guzy
Away
1.78
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Guzy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
49 points played in total.
Set by set
411411811––––
H2H Adam Duch 51–45 Karol Guzy Karol Guzy has won 45 of their 96 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (51%)
Guzy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-45 in 96
Duch
Wrong
gap of 6 in 96, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Duch 1642 vs Guzy 1725
Guzy
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Duch 40% vs Guzy 80%
Guzy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Duch 60% vs Guzy 90%
Guzy
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Duch -1 · Guzy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Guzy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDuch 1.86 / Guzy 1.78
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Guzy)+2.9pp
TT Cup · #13116426
Duch1.86
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 22 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back19% 4 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Guzy1.78
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 170 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it92% 79 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it82% 134 of 163
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDuch5wins
AwayGuzy5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDuch60%3 of 5
AwayGuzy60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Duch5Guzy5n = 10split evenly
S2Duch5Guzy5n = 10split evenly
S3Duch6Guzy4n = 10Duch took 6 of 10
S4Duch7Guzy2n = 9Duch took 7 of 9
S5Duch1Guzy4n = 5Guzy took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDuchGuzyD − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.140.5+2.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDuchGuzyBasisWin rate · lifetime451 / 758 vs 645 / 107359.5%60.1%451 / 758 vs 645 / 1073Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyDuch 1.86/Guzy 1.78
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Guzy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 20:00A. Duch—91112101K. Guzy—11614123
WSep 6 · 13:05A. Duch—1111711113K. Guzy—13811562
WSep 5 · 23:35A. Duch—41111123K. Guzy—1176101
LSep 5 · 20:05A. Duch—98111192K. Guzy—111137113
LSep 4 · 14:00A. Duch—891211102K. Guzy—1111108123
LAug 8 · 08:35A. Duch—11841152K. Guzy—711119113
WAug 7 · 15:30A. Duch—11411153K. Guzy—6116131
WAug 6 · 19:30A. Duch—1111143K. Guzy—17120
LAug 5 · 17:00A. Duch—113118122K. Guzy—811811143
WAug 1 · 13:45A. Duch—11118113K. Guzy—861181
A. Duch10
LSep 11 · 17:30K. Zapala2.3911115143A. Duch1.476811121WSep 11 · 15:00T. Stachera2.951199101A. Duch1.3691111123WSep 11 · 14:30P. Odelski2.10119881A. Duch1.6091111113LSep 10 · 22:10A. Duch1.57681111142P. Odelski2.30111167163LSep 10 · 20:00K. Guzy1.8311614123A. Duch1.8691112101WSep 10 · 19:00A. Duch1.8011911113P. Odelski1.86311661WSep 10 · 18:00A. Duch1.311111113B. Bartosz3.005980WSep 10 · 16:30A. Duch1.39711116153K. Zapala2.65118511132LSep 10 · 14:30A. Duch1.61127111172D. Bucko2.201011813113WSep 6 · 14:45A. Duch2.0051111123P. Kos1.741168101
K. Guzy10
LSep 11 · 18:00P. Odelski2.2011117113K. Guzy1.57781161WSep 11 · 15:30M. Szymanski2.2011970K. Guzy1.581311113WSep 11 · 14:00T. Stachera2.951461471K. Guzy1.31121116113WSep 10 · 22:40K. Guzy1.871111138113D. Bucko1.8344151172WSep 10 · 20:00K. Guzy1.8311614123A. Duch1.8691112101WSep 10 · 18:30K. Guzy1.361110915123K. Zapala2.809121113102WSep 10 · 17:00K. Guzy1.761141112113P. Odelski1.90711131092WSep 10 · 15:00K. Guzy1.87411711113D. Bucko1.8311711692WSep 10 · 14:00K. Guzy1.511113115113B. Bartosz2.2991531172WSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691
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