TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13111002
Played Sep 10Finished
Karol Guzy
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11961114121210––
Adam Duch
Away
1.86
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Duch to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
11961114121210––
H2H Karol Guzy 44–51 Adam Duch Karol Guzy has won 44 of their 95 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:55What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Guzy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-51 in 95
Duch
Wrong
gap of 7 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzy 1711 vs Duch 1665
Guzy
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzy 100% vs Duch 80%
Guzy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzy 80% vs Duch 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzy +5 · Duch +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Guzy) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Duch form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzy 1.83 / Duch 1.86
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Guzy)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13111002
Guzy1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 167 of 273
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it82% 131 of 160
Duch1.86
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 22 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back20% 4 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuzy4wins
AwayDuch6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDuch leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzy50%2 of 4
AwayDuch66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzy4Duch6n = 10Duch took 6 of 10
S2Guzy5Duch5n = 10split evenly
S3Guzy3Duch7n = 10Duch took 7 of 10
S4Guzy1Duch7n = 8Duch took 7 of 8
S5Guzy4Duch1n = 5Guzy took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuzyDuchG − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.642.4−3.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzyDuchBasisWin rate · lifetime641 / 1068 vs 450 / 75660%59.5%641 / 1068 vs 450 / 756Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyGuzy 1.83/Duch 1.86
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 13:05K. Guzy—13811562A. Duch—1111711113
LSep 5 · 23:35K. Guzy—1176101A. Duch—41111123
WSep 5 · 20:05K. Guzy—111137113A. Duch—98111192
WSep 4 · 14:00K. Guzy—1111108123A. Duch—891211102
WAug 8 · 08:35K. Guzy—711119113A. Duch—11841152
LAug 7 · 15:30K. Guzy—6116131A. Duch—11411153
LAug 6 · 19:30K. Guzy—17120A. Duch—1111143
WAug 5 · 17:00K. Guzy—811811143A. Duch—113118122
LAug 1 · 13:45K. Guzy—861181A. Duch—11118113
LAug 1 · 12:35K. Guzy—410100A. Duch—1112123
K. Guzy10
WSep 10 · 18:30K. Guzy1.361110915123K. Zapala2.809121113102WSep 10 · 17:00K. Guzy1.761141112113P. Odelski1.90711131092WSep 10 · 15:00K. Guzy1.87411711113D. Bucko1.8311711692WSep 10 · 14:00K. Guzy1.511113115113B. Bartosz2.2991531172WSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691LSep 6 · 13:05K. Guzy1.9813811562A. Duch1.751111711113WSep 6 · 11:05K. Zapala2.60781291K. Guzy1.44111110113WSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113LSep 6 · 08:05P. Kos2.5041111113K. Guzy1.46118821WSep 6 · 07:35K. Guzy1.701011811113M. Szymanski2.0512911892
A. Duch10
WSep 10 · 19:00A. Duch1.8011911113P. Odelski1.86311661WSep 10 · 18:00A. Duch1.311111113B. Bartosz3.005980WSep 10 · 16:30A. Duch1.39711116153K. Zapala2.65118511132LSep 10 · 14:30A. Duch1.61127111172D. Bucko2.201011813113WSep 6 · 14:45A. Duch2.0051111123P. Kos1.741168101WSep 6 · 13:05K. Guzy1.9813811562A. Duch1.751111711113WSep 6 · 11:35A. Duch1.541111106113M. Szymanski2.2248121172WSep 6 · 09:35P. Kos2.506990A. Duch1.471111113LSep 6 · 07:05K. Kowalewski1.741111113A. Duch1.957730WSep 6 · 06:35K. Zapala2.251610281A. Duch1.54141211113
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