TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084442
Played Sep 6Finished
Pawel Kos
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411118118112––
Karol Guzy
Away
1.46
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Guzy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
411118118112––
H2H Pawel Kos 32–31 Karol Guzy Karol Guzy has won 31 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Guzy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-31 in 63
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kos 1533 vs Guzy 1678
Guzy
Wrong
both rated, 145 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kos 60% vs Guzy 80%
Guzy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kos 40% vs Guzy 70%
Guzy
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kos +1 · Guzy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Guzy) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKos 2.50 / Guzy 1.46
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Guzy)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13084442
Kos2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 72 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back19% 17 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 56
Guzy1.46
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 166 of 271
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it82% 130 of 158
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKos6wins
AwayGuzy4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKos leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKos100%4 of 4
AwayGuzy66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kos4Guzy6n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S2Kos4Guzy6n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S3Kos7Guzy3n = 10Kos took 7 of 10
S4Kos4Guzy3n = 7Kos took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosGuzyK − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.535.2+2.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosGuzyBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 633 vs 634 / 105945%59.9%285 / 633 vs 634 / 1059Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyKos 2.50/Guzy 1.46
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 17:00P. Kos—11179133K. Guzy—51511111
LAug 28 · 17:30P. Kos—12911131K. Guzy—14114153
WAug 27 · 17:00P. Kos—91111113K. Guzy—115961
WAug 13 · 20:00P. Kos—11811113K. Guzy—211691
LAug 12 · 15:30P. Kos—5980K. Guzy—1111113
WAug 8 · 12:35P. Kos—1111113K. Guzy—8780
WAug 7 · 14:00P. Kos—1141110123K. Guzy—511512102
LAug 6 · 15:30P. Kos—6480K. Guzy—1111113
WAug 1 · 08:05P. Kos—81111113K. Guzy—116991
LJul 30 · 21:00P. Kos—871191K. Guzy—11117113
P. Kos10
LSep 6 · 14:45A. Duch2.0051111123P. Kos1.741168101LSep 6 · 12:35P. Kos1.9610101171M. Szymanski1.7012127113WSep 6 · 10:35K. Kowalewski1.33145831P. Kos3.10121111113LSep 6 · 09:35P. Kos2.506990A. Duch1.471111113WSep 6 · 08:35K. Zapala1.517670P. Kos2.401111113WSep 3 · 22:10K. Zapala1.479480P. Kos2.501111113LSep 3 · 21:00P. Kos1.6611912672B. Gola2.107111011113LSep 3 · 19:00D. Bucko1.611111113P. Kos2.156380WSep 3 · 17:00K. Guzy1.4751511111P. Kos2.5011179133WSep 3 · 16:00K. Zapala1.50581191P. Kos2.3511118113
K. Guzy10
WSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691LSep 6 · 13:05K. Guzy1.9813811562A. Duch1.751111711113WSep 6 · 11:05K. Zapala2.60781291K. Guzy1.44111110113WSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113WSep 6 · 07:35K. Guzy1.701011811113M. Szymanski2.0512911892LSep 5 · 23:35K. Guzy2.061176101A. Duch1.6341111123WSep 5 · 21:05D. Bucko1.83511941K. Guzy1.8811711113WSep 5 · 20:05K. Guzy1.90111137113A. Duch1.7698111192WSep 5 · 19:05K. Guzy2.00121211113K. Kowalewski1.711014771LSep 3 · 17:00K. Guzy1.4751511111P. Kos2.5011179133
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