TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13083800
Played Sep 5Finished
Karol Guzy
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101214117117––
Kamil Kowalewski
Away
1.71
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:49 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeKarol Guzy to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
84 points played in total.
Set by set
12101214117117––
H2H Karol Guzy 34–21 Kamil Kowalewski Kamil Kowalewski has won 21 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:49What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (54%)
Kowalewski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-21 in 55
Guzy
Correct
gap of 13 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzy 1653 vs Kowalewski 1695
Kowalewski
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzy 60% vs Kowalewski 40%
Guzy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzy 60% vs Kowalewski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzy -1 · Kowalewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kowalewski) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzy 2.00 / Kowalewski 1.71
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kowalewski)+0.1pp
TT Cup · #13083800
Guzy2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog51% won 62 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back35% 19 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back20% 6 of 30
Kowalewski1.71
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 135 of 222
Up 2–0, closes it96% 70 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it76% 93 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuzy7wins
AwayKowalewski3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGuzy leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzy71.4%5 of 7
AwayKowalewski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzy7Kowalewski3n = 10Guzy took 7 of 10
S2Guzy4Kowalewski6n = 10Kowalewski took 6 of 10
S3Guzy3Kowalewski7n = 10Kowalewski took 7 of 10
S4Guzy5Kowalewski4n = 9Guzy took 5 of 9
S5Guzy4Kowalewski0n = 4Guzy took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuzyKowalewskiG − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.242.5−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzyKowalewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime630 / 1054 vs 181 / 29659.8%61.2%630 / 1054 vs 181 / 296Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalewskiGuzy 2.00/Kowalewski 1.71
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kowalewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Guzy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 19:30K. Guzy—761115113K. Kowalewski—111181372
LSep 3 · 22:40K. Guzy—1168131K. Kowalewski—91111153
WSep 3 · 14:00K. Guzy—111176133K. Kowalewski—781111112
LAug 29 · 23:45K. Guzy—117441K. Kowalewski—71111113
WAug 29 · 19:05K. Guzy—81111113K. Kowalewski—117431
LAug 28 · 15:00K. Guzy—9850K. Kowalewski—1111113
WAug 27 · 22:30K. Guzy—1111118113K. Kowalewski—89131182
WAug 27 · 14:00K. Guzy—181011113K. Kowalewski—1612891
WAug 13 · 14:00K. Guzy—1311811113K. Kowalewski—111311982
WAug 12 · 14:00K. Guzy—11118113K. Kowalewski—891191
K. Guzy10
WSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691LSep 6 · 13:05K. Guzy1.9813811562A. Duch1.751111711113WSep 6 · 11:05K. Zapala2.60781291K. Guzy1.44111110113WSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113LSep 6 · 08:05P. Kos2.5041111113K. Guzy1.46118821WSep 6 · 07:35K. Guzy1.701011811113M. Szymanski2.0512911892LSep 5 · 23:35K. Guzy2.061176101A. Duch1.6341111123WSep 5 · 21:05D. Bucko1.83511941K. Guzy1.8811711113WSep 5 · 20:05K. Guzy1.90111137113A. Duch1.7698111192LSep 5 · 17:35K. Guzy1.541081181K. Zapala2.2212113113
K. Kowalewski10
LSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691WSep 6 · 12:05K. Kowalewski1.3391313113K. Zapala2.8511111191LSep 6 · 10:35K. Kowalewski1.33145831P. Kos3.10121111113LSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113WSep 6 · 07:05K. Kowalewski1.741111113A. Duch1.957730WSep 6 · 06:05K. Kowalewski1.55812911123M. Szymanski2.211110119102LSep 5 · 22:35K. Kowalewski—13981452M. Szymanski—11111112113LSep 5 · 21:35K. Zapala2.6091111133K. Kowalewski1.441167111WSep 5 · 20:35M. Szymanski2.1010149101K. Kowalewski1.60121211123WSep 5 · 16:35A. Duch2.30112441K. Kowalewski1.5591111113
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