TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13081414
Played Sep 5Finished
Adam Duch
Home
2.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119211411411––
Kamil Kowalewski
Away
1.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:28 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeKamil Kowalewski to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
63 points played in total.
Set by set
119211411411––
H2H Adam Duch 17–23 Kamil Kowalewski Adam Duch has won 17 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:28What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (60%)
Kowalewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-23 in 40
Kowalewski
Correct
gap of 6 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Duch 1569 vs Kowalewski 1687
Kowalewski
Correct
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Duch 40% vs Kowalewski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Duch 30% vs Kowalewski 70%
Kowalewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Duch +1 · Kowalewski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Kowalewski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalewski form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDuch 2.30 / Kowalewski 1.55
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Kowalewski)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13081414
Duch2.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 21 of 46
Down 0–1, comes back17% 3 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Kowalewski1.55
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 135 of 222
Up 2–0, closes it96% 70 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it76% 93 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDuch4wins
AwayKowalewski6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKowalewski leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDuch57.1%4 of 7
AwayKowalewski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Duch7Kowalewski3n = 10Duch took 7 of 10
S2Duch5Kowalewski5n = 10split evenly
S3Duch4Kowalewski6n = 10Kowalewski took 6 of 10
S4Duch1Kowalewski4n = 5Kowalewski took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDuchKowalewskiD − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match32.233.4−1.2per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDuchKowalewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 740 vs 180 / 29559.2%61%438 / 740 vs 180 / 295Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalewskiDuch 2.30/Kowalewski 1.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Kowalewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kowalewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 15:00A. Duch—115961K. Kowalewski—51111113
LAug 8 · 12:05A. Duch—61390K. Kowalewski—1115113
WAug 7 · 21:00A. Duch—1111113K. Kowalewski—8870
WAug 6 · 15:00A. Duch—11711113K. Kowalewski—911531
LAug 5 · 22:00A. Duch—911731K. Kowalewski—11811113
LAug 5 · 15:30A. Duch—119861K. Kowalewski—51111113
WAug 1 · 11:35A. Duch—1111123K. Kowalewski—69100
WJul 31 · 21:30A. Duch—1111113K. Kowalewski—6890
LJul 31 · 14:10A. Duch—8530K. Kowalewski—1111113
LJul 30 · 14:00A. Duch—11119842K. Kowalewski—781111113
A. Duch10
WSep 6 · 14:45A. Duch2.0051111123P. Kos1.741168101WSep 6 · 13:05K. Guzy1.9813811562A. Duch1.751111711113WSep 6 · 11:35A. Duch1.541111106113M. Szymanski2.2248121172WSep 6 · 09:35P. Kos2.506990A. Duch1.471111113LSep 6 · 07:05K. Kowalewski1.741111113A. Duch1.957730WSep 6 · 06:35K. Zapala2.251610281A. Duch1.54141211113WSep 5 · 23:35K. Guzy2.061176101A. Duch1.6341111123WSep 5 · 22:05A. Duch1.581111113M. Szymanski2.147880LSep 5 · 20:05K. Guzy1.90111137113A. Duch1.7698111192WSep 5 · 18:05D. Bucko2.1511118782A. Duch1.61871111113
K. Kowalewski10
LSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691WSep 6 · 12:05K. Kowalewski1.3391313113K. Zapala2.8511111191LSep 6 · 10:35K. Kowalewski1.33145831P. Kos3.10121111113LSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113WSep 6 · 07:05K. Kowalewski1.741111113A. Duch1.957730WSep 6 · 06:05K. Kowalewski1.55812911123M. Szymanski2.211110119102LSep 5 · 22:35K. Kowalewski—13981452M. Szymanski—11111112113LSep 5 · 21:35K. Zapala2.6091111133K. Kowalewski1.441167111WSep 5 · 20:35M. Szymanski2.1010149101K. Kowalewski1.60121211123LSep 5 · 19:05K. Guzy2.00121211113K. Kowalewski1.711014771
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