TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13087105
Played Sep 6Finished
Adam Duch
Home
1.54
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141181012611117
Mateusz Szymanski
Away
2.22
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:32 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeAdam Duch to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
1141181012611117
H2H Adam Duch 18–17 Mateusz Szymanski Mateusz Szymanski has won 17 of their 35 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:32What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Duch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-17 in 35
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Duch 1625 vs Szymanski 1558
Duch
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Duch 80% vs Szymanski 20%
Duch
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Duch 70% vs Szymanski 30%
Duch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Duch +1 · Szymanski -3
Szymanski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Duch)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szymanski form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDuch 1.54 / Szymanski 2.22
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Duch)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13087105
Duch1.54
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 113 of 185
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it77% 82 of 106
Szymanski2.22
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 28 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDuch5wins
AwaySzymanski5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDuch71.4%5 of 7
AwaySzymanski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Duch7Szymanski3n = 10Duch took 7 of 10
S2Duch5Szymanski5n = 10split evenly
S3Duch7Szymanski3n = 10Duch took 7 of 10
S4Duch2Szymanski4n = 6Szymanski took 4 of 6
S5Duch1Szymanski3n = 4Szymanski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDuchSzymanskiD − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.835.5+1.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDuchSzymanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime444 / 749 vs 136 / 25459.3%53.5%444 / 749 vs 136 / 254Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DuchDuch 1.54/Szymanski 2.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.4%
Duch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Duch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 22:05A. Duch—1111113M. Szymanski—7880
LSep 4 · 17:00A. Duch—49111142M. Szymanski—111135113
LAug 1 · 06:35A. Duch—12411662M. Szymanski—1011711113
LJul 31 · 18:00A. Duch—9511111M. Szymanski—11118133
WJul 18 · 23:05A. Duch—111286113M. Szymanski—310111192
LJul 18 · 15:35A. Duch—117116112M. Szymanski—911511133
LJul 17 · 19:00A. Duch—5940M. Szymanski—1111113
WJun 21 · 06:35A. Duch—11118133M. Szymanski—4811111
WJun 20 · 23:45A. Duch—1111113M. Szymanski—5890
WJun 20 · 19:35A. Duch—1111113M. Szymanski—2770
A. Duch10
WSep 6 · 14:45A. Duch2.0051111123P. Kos1.741168101WSep 6 · 13:05K. Guzy1.9813811562A. Duch1.751111711113WSep 6 · 09:35P. Kos2.506990A. Duch1.471111113LSep 6 · 07:05K. Kowalewski1.741111113A. Duch1.957730WSep 6 · 06:35K. Zapala2.251610281A. Duch1.54141211113WSep 5 · 23:35K. Guzy2.061176101A. Duch1.6341111123WSep 5 · 22:05A. Duch1.581111113M. Szymanski2.147880LSep 5 · 20:05K. Guzy1.90111137113A. Duch1.7698111192WSep 5 · 18:05D. Bucko2.1511118782A. Duch1.61871111113WSep 5 · 17:05K. Zapala2.3611914852A. Duch1.487111211113
M. Szymanski10
WSep 6 · 13:55K. Zapala—11860M. Szymanski—1311113WSep 6 · 12:35P. Kos1.9610101171M. Szymanski1.7012127113LSep 6 · 10:05K. Zapala2.25141111163M. Szymanski1.5412138141LSep 6 · 07:35K. Guzy1.701011811113M. Szymanski2.0512911892LSep 6 · 06:05K. Kowalewski1.55812911123M. Szymanski2.211110119102WSep 5 · 22:35K. Kowalewski—13981452M. Szymanski—11111112113LSep 5 · 22:05A. Duch1.581111113M. Szymanski2.147880LSep 5 · 20:35M. Szymanski2.1010149101K. Kowalewski1.60121211123LSep 5 · 18:35K. Zapala2.50101111173M. Szymanski1.461269151WSep 5 · 16:05D. Bucko1.991185111M. Szymanski1.6771111133
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