TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13115447
Played Sep 11Finished
Tomasz Stachera
Home
2.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1199119111012––
Adam Duch
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:33 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeAdam Duch to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
1199119111012––
H2H Tomasz Stachera 1–6 Adam Duch Tomasz Stachera has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:33What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (68%)
Duch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Duch
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stachera 1485 vs Duch 1653
Duch
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stachera 20% vs Duch 60%
Duch
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stachera 20% vs Duch 70%
Duch
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stachera -1 · Duch +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Duch)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Duch form (60%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStachera 2.95 / Duch 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Duch)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13115447
Stachera2.95
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 28 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back19% 6 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Duch1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 120 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it78% 86 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStachera1wins
AwayDuch6wins
1 of 7 to a deciderDuch leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStacheran = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDuch100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stachera2Duch5n = 7Duch took 5 of 7
S2Stachera2Duch5n = 7Duch took 5 of 7
S3Stachera1Duch6n = 7Duch took 6 of 7
S4Stachera0Duch4n = 4Duch took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricStacheraDuchS − DBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match32.140.9−8.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStacheraDuchBasisWin rate · lifetime112 / 253 vs 451 / 75844.3%59.5%112 / 253 vs 451 / 758Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DuchStachera 2.95/Duch 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Duch · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Duch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LMar 30 · 17:30T. Stachera—1171081A. Duch—81112113
LMar 19 · 21:30T. Stachera—812671A. Duch—111011113
WFeb 23 · 21:00T. Stachera—171179113A. Duch—159111172
LFeb 17 · 21:00T. Stachera—101450A. Duch—1216113
LOct 9 · 18:30T. Stachera—861151A. Duch—11119113
LOct 3 · 16:05T. Stachera—9740A. Duch—1111113
LSep 18 · 14:00T. Stachera—57100A. Duch—1111123
T. Stachera10
LSep 11 · 14:00T. Stachera2.951461471K. Guzy1.31121116113WAug 28 · 21:40K. Guzy1.44117157132T. Stachera2.607111311153LAug 28 · 20:30P. Kos1.6611811113T. Stachera2.05811511LAug 28 · 19:30K. Guzy1.411191111123T. Stachera2.60611913102LAug 28 · 18:00D. Bucko1.461112133T. Stachera2.50710110LAug 28 · 15:30M. Szymanski1.505121115113T. Stachera2.40111081722LAug 28 · 14:00K. Kowalewski1.361111113T. Stachera2.956960LAug 21 · 22:10P. Kos3.40119811113T. Stachera1.2721111262LAug 21 · 20:30K. Zapala1.86115117113T. Stachera1.8391121192WAug 21 · 19:30D. Bucko1.62118111172T. Stachera2.06911913113
A. Duch10
WSep 11 · 14:30P. Odelski2.10119881A. Duch1.6091111113LSep 10 · 22:10A. Duch1.57681111142P. Odelski2.30111167163LSep 10 · 20:00K. Guzy1.8311614123A. Duch1.8691112101WSep 10 · 19:00A. Duch1.8011911113P. Odelski1.86311661WSep 10 · 18:00A. Duch1.311111113B. Bartosz3.005980WSep 10 · 16:30A. Duch1.39711116153K. Zapala2.65118511132LSep 10 · 14:30A. Duch1.61127111172D. Bucko2.201011813113WSep 6 · 14:45A. Duch2.0051111123P. Kos1.741168101WSep 6 · 13:05K. Guzy1.9813811562A. Duch1.751111711113WSep 6 · 11:35A. Duch1.541111106113M. Szymanski2.2248121172
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