TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13035043
Played Aug 28Finished
Kamil Kowalewski
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119116––––
Tomasz Stachera
Away
2.95
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:20 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeKamil Kowalewski to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
116119116––––
H2H Kamil Kowalewski 4–1 Tomasz Stachera Tomasz Stachera has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:20What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (68%)
Kowalewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kowalewski
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowalewski 1650 vs Stachera 1521
Kowalewski
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowalewski 60% vs Stachera 40%
Kowalewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowalewski 60% vs Stachera 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowalewski -2 · Stachera -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Kowalewski) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowalewski form (60%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowalewski 1.36 / Stachera 2.95
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Kowalewski)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13035043
Kowalewski1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 121 of 203
Up 2–0, closes it97% 59 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it75% 81 of 108
Stachera2.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back17% 5 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKowalewski4wins
AwayStachera1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKowalewski leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowalewski100%3 of 3
AwayStacheran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowalewski3Stachera2n = 5Kowalewski took 3 of 5
S2Kowalewski5Stachera0n = 5Kowalewski took 5 of 5
S3Kowalewski4Stachera1n = 5Kowalewski took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKowalewskiStacheraK − SBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.225.6+12.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowalewskiStacheraBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 270 vs 118 / 25460.4%46.5%163 / 270 vs 118 / 254Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KowalewskiKowalewski 1.36/Stachera 2.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Kowalewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kowalewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 21 · 14:00K. Kowalewski—911511113T. Stachera—11711342
WAug 19 · 22:30K. Kowalewski—1111133T. Stachera—53110
WAug 19 · 14:00K. Kowalewski—1111113T. Stachera—5370
LJul 24 · 15:30K. Kowalewski—91111662T. Stachera—115611113
WJun 25 · 14:00K. Kowalewski—1111113T. Stachera—6710
K. Kowalewski10
LSep 6 · 14:15K. Guzy1.8891111113K. Kowalewski1.82118691WSep 6 · 12:05K. Kowalewski1.3391313113K. Zapala2.8511111191LSep 6 · 10:35K. Kowalewski1.33145831P. Kos3.10121111113LSep 6 · 09:05K. Kowalewski1.8751181182K. Guzy1.83117117113WSep 6 · 07:05K. Kowalewski1.741111113A. Duch1.957730WSep 6 · 06:05K. Kowalewski1.55812911123M. Szymanski2.211110119102LSep 5 · 22:35K. Kowalewski—13981452M. Szymanski—11111112113LSep 5 · 21:35K. Zapala2.6091111133K. Kowalewski1.441167111WSep 5 · 20:35M. Szymanski2.1010149101K. Kowalewski1.60121211123LSep 5 · 19:05K. Guzy2.00121211113K. Kowalewski1.711014771
T. Stachera10
WAug 28 · 21:40K. Guzy1.44117157132T. Stachera2.607111311153LAug 28 · 20:30P. Kos1.6611811113T. Stachera2.05811511LAug 28 · 19:30K. Guzy1.411191111123T. Stachera2.60611913102LAug 28 · 18:00D. Bucko1.461112133T. Stachera2.50710110LAug 28 · 15:30M. Szymanski1.505121115113T. Stachera2.40111081722LAug 21 · 22:10P. Kos3.40119811113T. Stachera1.2721111262LAug 21 · 20:30K. Zapala1.86115117113T. Stachera1.8391121192WAug 21 · 19:30D. Bucko1.62118111172T. Stachera2.06911913113LAug 21 · 18:00P. Kos2.2011117113T. Stachera1.57481181WAug 21 · 15:30G. Rokita2.951261151T. Stachera1.3114116113
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