TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12470931
Played Aug 21Finished
Pawel Kos
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114118711118––
Tomasz Stachera
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePawel Kos to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
71 points played in total.
Set by set
114118711118––
H2H Pawel Kos 16–17 Tomasz Stachera Pawel Kos has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:05What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Stachera
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-17 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kos 1506 vs Stachera 1544
Stachera
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kos 60% vs Stachera 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kos 50% vs Stachera 70%
Stachera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kos -1 · Stachera +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Stachera) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kos form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKos 2.20 / Stachera 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Stachera)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12470931
Kos2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 64 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 51
Stachera1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 7 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKos4wins
AwayStachera6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStachera leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKos60%3 of 5
AwayStachera80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kos5Stachera5n = 10split evenly
S2Kos8Stachera2n = 10Kos took 8 of 10
S3Kos4Stachera6n = 10Stachera took 6 of 10
S4Kos3Stachera4n = 7Stachera took 4 of 7
S5Kos1Stachera4n = 5Stachera took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKosStacheraK − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.639.4+0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKosStacheraBasisWin rate · lifetime295 / 655 vs 123 / 26145%47.1%295 / 655 vs 123 / 261Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StacheraKos 2.20/Stachera 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.4%
Stachera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 20:00P. Kos—71151172T. Stachera—116118113
LJul 24 · 22:00P. Kos—9611101T. Stachera—11119123
WJul 24 · 17:30P. Kos—1711113T. Stachera—15760
LJul 8 · 15:00P. Kos—61111562T. Stachera—119811113
LJul 2 · 20:00P. Kos—111146142T. Stachera—591111163
LJun 25 · 22:00P. Kos—11115982T. Stachera—671111113
WJun 25 · 17:00P. Kos—7111111113T. Stachera—11913792
WMay 27 · 18:00P. Kos—11116113T. Stachera—751131
WMay 5 · 15:30P. Kos—1111113T. Stachera—5390
LApr 29 · 21:00P. Kos—81280T. Stachera—1114113
P. Kos10
LSep 6 · 14:45A. Duch2.0051111123P. Kos1.741168101LSep 6 · 12:35P. Kos1.9610101171M. Szymanski1.7012127113WSep 6 · 10:35K. Kowalewski1.33145831P. Kos3.10121111113LSep 6 · 09:35P. Kos2.506990A. Duch1.471111113WSep 6 · 08:35K. Zapala1.517670P. Kos2.401111113WSep 6 · 08:05P. Kos2.5041111113K. Guzy1.46118821WSep 3 · 22:10K. Zapala1.479480P. Kos2.501111113LSep 3 · 21:00P. Kos1.6611912672B. Gola2.107111011113LSep 3 · 19:00D. Bucko1.611111113P. Kos2.156380WSep 3 · 17:00K. Guzy1.4751511111P. Kos2.5011179133
T. Stachera10
WAug 28 · 21:40K. Guzy1.44117157132T. Stachera2.607111311153LAug 28 · 20:30P. Kos1.6611811113T. Stachera2.05811511LAug 28 · 19:30K. Guzy1.411191111123T. Stachera2.60611913102LAug 28 · 18:00D. Bucko1.461112133T. Stachera2.50710110LAug 28 · 15:30M. Szymanski1.505121115113T. Stachera2.40111081722LAug 28 · 14:00K. Kowalewski1.361111113T. Stachera2.956960LAug 21 · 22:10P. Kos3.40119811113T. Stachera1.2721111262LAug 21 · 20:30K. Zapala1.86115117113T. Stachera1.8391121192WAug 21 · 19:30D. Bucko1.62118111172T. Stachera2.06911913113WAug 21 · 15:30G. Rokita2.951261151T. Stachera1.3114116113
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