TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13117346
Played Sep 11Finished
Karol Guzy
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141210117––––
Mateusz Szymanski
Away
1.87
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:13 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Guzy to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
1141210117––––
H2H Karol Guzy 23–19 Mateusz Szymanski Mateusz Szymanski has won 19 of their 42 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Guzy beat Szymanski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Guzy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-19 in 42
Guzy
Correct
gap of 4 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Guzy 1741 vs Szymanski 1583
Guzy
Correct
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Guzy 80% vs Szymanski 60%
Guzy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Guzy 90% vs Szymanski 50%
Guzy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Guzy +2 · Szymanski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Guzy) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Guzy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGuzy 1.83 / Szymanski 1.87
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Guzy)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13117346
Guzy1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 170 of 276
Up 2–0, closes it92% 79 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it82% 134 of 163
Szymanski1.87
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGuzy7wins
AwaySzymanski3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderGuzy leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGuzy83.3%5 of 6
AwaySzymanski50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Guzy6Szymanski4n = 10Guzy took 6 of 10
S2Guzy7Szymanski3n = 10Guzy took 7 of 10
S3Guzy4Szymanski6n = 10Szymanski took 6 of 10
S4Guzy3Szymanski6n = 9Szymanski took 6 of 9
S5Guzy5Szymanski1n = 6Guzy took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGuzySzymanskiG − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.642.9−0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGuzySzymanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime647 / 1075 vs 141 / 26260.2%53.8%647 / 1075 vs 141 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GuzyGuzy 1.83/Szymanski 1.87
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Guzy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Guzy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 15:30K. Guzy—1311113M. Szymanski—11970
WSep 6 · 07:35K. Guzy—1011811113M. Szymanski—12911892
WSep 5 · 15:35K. Guzy—713144113M. Szymanski—1111121152
LSep 4 · 22:40K. Guzy—119911M. Szymanski—81111113
WSep 4 · 15:30K. Guzy—11138113M. Szymanski—9111171
WAug 29 · 20:35K. Guzy—1110137113M. Szymanski—812111162
LAug 28 · 21:00K. Guzy—101181152M. Szymanski—127116113
WAug 1 · 11:05K. Guzy—111173123M. Szymanski—751111102
LJul 31 · 14:30K. Guzy—511761M. Szymanski—11611113
WJul 18 · 21:05K. Guzy—1111114113M. Szymanski—51381192
K. Guzy10
WSep 11 · 20:30K. Zapala2.55141261182K. Guzy1.411214117113WSep 11 · 19:30A. Duch1.864480K. Guzy1.781111113LSep 11 · 18:00P. Odelski2.2011117113K. Guzy1.57781161WSep 11 · 15:30M. Szymanski2.2011970K. Guzy1.581311113WSep 11 · 14:00T. Stachera2.951461471K. Guzy1.31121116113WSep 10 · 22:40K. Guzy1.871111138113D. Bucko1.8344151172WSep 10 · 20:00K. Guzy1.8311614123A. Duch1.8691112101WSep 10 · 18:30K. Guzy1.361110915123K. Zapala2.809121113102WSep 10 · 17:00K. Guzy1.761141112113P. Odelski1.90711131092WSep 10 · 15:00K. Guzy1.87411711113D. Bucko1.8311711692
M. Szymanski10
LSep 11 · 21:00M. Szymanski1.8741311582A. Duch1.831111311113WSep 11 · 19:00P. Odelski1.838101131M. Szymanski1.8611127113WSep 11 · 17:00T. Stachera2.33119551M. Szymanski1.4981111113WSep 11 · 16:00K. Zapala2.40138781M. Szymanski1.50111111113LSep 11 · 15:30M. Szymanski2.2011970K. Guzy1.581311113WSep 6 · 13:55K. Zapala—11860M. Szymanski—1311113WSep 6 · 12:35P. Kos1.9610101171M. Szymanski1.7012127113LSep 6 · 11:35A. Duch1.541111106113M. Szymanski2.2248121172LSep 6 · 10:05K. Zapala2.25141111163M. Szymanski1.5412138141LSep 6 · 07:35K. Guzy1.701011811113M. Szymanski2.0512911892
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