TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13116462
Played Sep 11Finished
Mateusz Szymanski
Home
1.87
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111311113511811
Adam Duch
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Duch to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
88 points played in total.
Set by set
4111311113511811
H2H Mateusz Szymanski 17–19 Adam Duch Mateusz Szymanski has won 17 of their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:30What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Duch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-19 in 36
Duch
Correct
gap of 2 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szymanski 1593 vs Duch 1631
Duch
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szymanski 80% vs Duch 40%
Szymanski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szymanski 50% vs Duch 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szymanski +3 · Duch -2
Szymanski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Duch) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Duch form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzymanski 1.87 / Duch 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Duch)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13116462
Szymanski1.87
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 27 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Duch1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 120 of 194
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it78% 86 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzymanski5wins
AwayDuch5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzymanski100%3 of 3
AwayDuch71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szymanski3Duch7n = 10Duch took 7 of 10
S2Szymanski5Duch5n = 10split evenly
S3Szymanski4Duch6n = 10Duch took 6 of 10
S4Szymanski5Duch2n = 7Szymanski took 5 of 7
S5Szymanski3Duch2n = 5Szymanski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzymanskiDuchS − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.138.4−0.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzymanskiDuchBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 261 vs 450 / 75854%59.4%141 / 261 vs 450 / 758Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DuchSzymanski 1.87/Duch 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Duch · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Duch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 11:35M. Szymanski—48121172A. Duch—1111106113
LSep 5 · 22:05M. Szymanski—7880A. Duch—1111113
WSep 4 · 17:00M. Szymanski—111135113A. Duch—49111142
WAug 1 · 06:35M. Szymanski—1011711113A. Duch—12411662
WJul 31 · 18:00M. Szymanski—11118133A. Duch—9511111
LJul 18 · 23:05M. Szymanski—310111192A. Duch—111286113
WJul 18 · 15:35M. Szymanski—911511133A. Duch—117116112
WJul 17 · 19:00M. Szymanski—1111113A. Duch—5940
LJun 21 · 06:35M. Szymanski—4811111A. Duch—11118133
LJun 20 · 23:45M. Szymanski—5890A. Duch—1111113
M. Szymanski10
WSep 11 · 19:00P. Odelski1.838101131M. Szymanski1.8611127113WSep 11 · 17:00T. Stachera2.33119551M. Szymanski1.4981111113WSep 11 · 16:00K. Zapala2.40138781M. Szymanski1.50111111113LSep 11 · 15:30M. Szymanski2.2011970K. Guzy1.581311113WSep 6 · 13:55K. Zapala—11860M. Szymanski—1311113WSep 6 · 12:35P. Kos1.9610101171M. Szymanski1.7012127113LSep 6 · 11:35A. Duch1.541111106113M. Szymanski2.2248121172LSep 6 · 10:05K. Zapala2.25141111163M. Szymanski1.5412138141LSep 6 · 07:35K. Guzy1.701011811113M. Szymanski2.0512911892LSep 6 · 06:05K. Kowalewski1.55812911123M. Szymanski2.211110119102
A. Duch10
LSep 11 · 19:30A. Duch1.864480K. Guzy1.781111113LSep 11 · 17:30K. Zapala2.3911115143A. Duch1.476811121WSep 11 · 15:00T. Stachera2.951199101A. Duch1.3691111123WSep 11 · 14:30P. Odelski2.10119881A. Duch1.6091111113LSep 10 · 22:10A. Duch1.57681111142P. Odelski2.30111167163LSep 10 · 20:00K. Guzy1.8311614123A. Duch1.8691112101WSep 10 · 19:00A. Duch1.8011911113P. Odelski1.86311661WSep 10 · 18:00A. Duch1.311111113B. Bartosz3.005980WSep 10 · 16:30A. Duch1.39711116153K. Zapala2.65118511132WSep 6 · 11:35A. Duch1.541111106113M. Szymanski2.2248121172
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