TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111362
Played Sep 11Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8117111214––––
Dmytro Palii
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Prus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Dmytro Palii below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 63 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Serhii Prus at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 7–8 Dmytro Palii Serhii Prus has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:04What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Palii
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1386 vs Palii 1491
Palii
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 0% vs Palii 40%
Palii
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 20% vs Palii 40%
Palii
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus -5 · Palii -2
Prus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Palii) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Palii form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 2.00 / Palii 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Palii)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111362
Prus2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 41 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back17% 6 of 35
Palii1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite35% won 6 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrus3wins
AwayPalii7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPalii leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrus66.7%2 of 3
AwayPalii85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus3Palii7n = 10Palii took 7 of 10
S2Prus5Palii5n = 10split evenly
S3Prus7Palii3n = 10Prus took 7 of 10
S4Prus1Palii6n = 7Palii took 6 of 7
S5Prus1Palii2n = 3Palii took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrusPaliiPrus − PaliiBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.837.1−0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusPaliiBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 415 vs 103 / 18047.5%57.2%197 / 415 vs 103 / 180Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PaliiPrus 2.00/Palii 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Palii · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Palii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus—85111162D. Palii—111197113
WJul 4 · 10:25S. Prus—1111113D. Palii—5830
LJul 3 · 14:55S. Prus—6111051D. Palii—11112113
LJun 30 · 04:25S. Prus—1111891D. Palii—51311113
WJun 29 · 11:55S. Prus—1111113D. Palii—7570
WJun 18 · 08:25S. Prus—911144113D. Palii—117121152
LFeb 21 · 14:25S. Prus—1171171D. Palii—1311593
LFeb 15 · 11:25S. Prus—1071161D. Palii—12115113
LFeb 8 · 09:25S. Prus—10960D. Palii—1211113
LDec 28 · 05:25S. Prus—511126122D. Palii—1191011143
S. Prus10
LSep 11 · 16:25S. Prus1.80129661V. Kuzmych1.91101111113LSep 11 · 14:55S. Prus2.637101181M. Slozka1.4411128113LSep 11 · 13:25S. Prus2.00561151I. Fashchevskyi1.7311114113LSep 11 · 11:55S. Prus3.4011411882D. Maltsev1.30911811113LSep 11 · 02:45S. Prus3.0011911652T. Gil1.36911611113LSep 11 · 24:45M. Slozka1.5091111113S. Prus2.50111381LSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus1.8385111162D. Palii1.83111197113LSep 10 · 22:45O. Sydorchuk2.00101111123S. Prus1.731299101WSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus2.10115138113I. Fashchevskyi1.67811111182WSep 6 · 10:25M. Slozka1.44814881S. Prus2.63111211113
D. Palii10
LSep 11 · 16:55D. Palii2.2541111652M. Slozka1.57118911113LSep 11 · 15:55D. Palii1.7371141152D. Maltsev2.00118118113WSep 11 · 14:25D. Palii1.6711119113V. Kuzmych2.10761161WSep 11 · 12:25D. Palii2.10121265163I. Fashchevskyi1.6710101111142LSep 11 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113D. Palii2.007970WSep 11 · 01:45D. Palii2.501111113T. Gil1.509850WSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus1.8385111162D. Palii1.83111197113LSep 10 · 21:45M. Slozka1.8311119113D. Palii1.83681131LSep 10 · 20:45O. Sydorchuk2.6311155113D. Palii1.448131181LJul 4 · 10:25S. Prus2.101111113D. Palii1.675830
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