TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111174
Played Sep 11Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119411118811811
Denys Maltsev
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 73.0% is still 73.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Maltsev to win
73.0%
73.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Denys Maltsev at 73.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 8–39 Denys Maltsev Serhii Prus has won 8 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Maltsev
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-39 in 47
Maltsev
Correct
gap of 31 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1438 vs Maltsev 1453
Maltsev
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 20% vs Maltsev 40%
Maltsev
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 50% vs Maltsev 30%
Prus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus -4 · Maltsev -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Maltsev) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 3.40 / Maltsev 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Maltsev)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111174
Prus3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 41 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back17% 6 of 35
Maltsev1.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 117 of 211
Up 2–0, closes it86% 75 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it74% 93 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrus2wins
AwayMaltsev8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMaltsev leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrusn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayMaltsev77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus1Maltsev9n = 10Maltsev took 9 of 10
S2Prus4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S3Prus3Maltsev7n = 10Maltsev took 7 of 10
S4Prus4Maltsev3n = 7Prus took 4 of 7
S5Prus2Maltsev3n = 5Maltsev took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrusMaltsevP − MBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match36.839.9−3.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 411 vs 452 / 88147.9%51.3%197 / 411 vs 452 / 881Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaltsevPrus 3.40/Maltsev 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.8%
Maltsev · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 27 · 07:25S. Prus—75111172D. Maltsev—111185113
LFeb 15 · 05:25S. Prus—811971D. Maltsev—11911113
WFeb 1 · 08:25S. Prus—611115113D. Maltsev—11641182
LJan 28 · 06:55S. Prus—11891162D. Maltsev—611117113
LJan 27 · 13:25S. Prus—6860D. Maltsev—1111113
LJan 18 · 06:55S. Prus—9760D. Maltsev—1111113
LJan 10 · 05:25S. Prus—7690D. Maltsev—1111113
WJan 9 · 14:25S. Prus—9111311113D. Maltsev—11515582
LJan 3 · 08:25S. Prus—981191D. Maltsev—11111113
LJan 2 · 17:25S. Prus—91181182D. Maltsev—118117113
S. Prus10
LSep 11 · 13:25S. Prus2.00561151I. Fashchevskyi1.7311114113LSep 11 · 02:45S. Prus3.0011911652T. Gil1.36911611113LSep 11 · 24:45M. Slozka1.5091111113S. Prus2.50111381LSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus1.8385111162D. Palii1.83111197113LSep 10 · 22:45O. Sydorchuk2.00101111123S. Prus1.731299101WSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus2.10115138113I. Fashchevskyi1.67811111182WSep 6 · 10:25M. Slozka1.44814881S. Prus2.63111211113LSep 6 · 09:25S. Prus2.636940T. Gil1.441111113WSep 6 · 08:25S. Prus1.4411119113R. Bihun2.63871171WSep 6 · 06:55S. Prus1.83111120113V. Kuzmych1.83882271
D. Maltsev10
LSep 11 · 13:55M. Slozka2.631112113D. Maltsev1.4461080LSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113LSep 9 · 09:05D. Maltsev1.91511871Y. Tebenko1.8011511113LSep 9 · 07:35D. Maltsev2.25411861I. Pytsko1.5711811113WSep 9 · 06:05D. Maltsev2.10135411113O. Storozhenko1.67111111972WSep 9 · 04:35D. Maltsev1.80671114113I. Fashchevskyi1.91111151212LSep 8 · 19:05D. Maltsev2.007750O. Storozhenko1.731111113LSep 8 · 17:05M. Potapov1.831111113D. Maltsev1.837770LSep 8 · 15:05V. Moshovskyi1.7311111010113D. Maltsev2.0068121282LSep 8 · 14:05D. Maltsev2.204111281I. Pytsko1.6111514113
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