TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111311
Played Sep 11Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511611114511––
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Fashchevskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 64 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Ivan Fashchevskyi at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 14–20 Ivan Fashchevskyi Serhii Prus has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:54What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fashchevskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-20 in 34
Fashchevskyi
Correct
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1428 vs Fashchevskyi 1394
Prus
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 0% vs Fashchevskyi 20%
Fashchevskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 40% vs Fashchevskyi 20%
Prus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus -5 · Fashchevskyi -1
Prus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Fashchevskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 2.00 / Fashchevskyi 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Fashchevskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13111311
Prus2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog38% won 41 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back22% 13 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back17% 6 of 35
Fashchevskyi1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 83 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrus5wins
AwayFashchevskyi5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrus75%3 of 4
AwayFashchevskyi66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus4Fashchevskyi6n = 10Fashchevskyi took 6 of 10
S2Prus3Fashchevskyi7n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S3Prus8Fashchevskyi2n = 10Prus took 8 of 10
S4Prus4Fashchevskyi4n = 8split evenly
S5Prus3Fashchevskyi3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrusFashchevskyiP − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.342.8−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 412 vs 283 / 56547.8%50.1%197 / 412 vs 283 / 565Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FashchevskyiPrus 2.00/Fashchevskyi 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Fashchevskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus—115138113I. Fashchevskyi—811111182
LSep 5 · 24:45S. Prus—11117952I. Fashchevskyi—971111113
WJul 17 · 24:15S. Prus—1111113I. Fashchevskyi—9840
WJul 15 · 11:55S. Prus—1381111113I. Fashchevskyi—15117672
LJul 8 · 14:55S. Prus—91111882I. Fashchevskyi—116711113
LJul 4 · 05:55S. Prus—136111232I. Fashchevskyi—1511710113
WJul 3 · 17:55S. Prus—1181612133I. Fashchevskyi—13111410112
LJun 30 · 08:55S. Prus—581171I. Fashchevskyi—11115113
LJun 29 · 16:25S. Prus—10470I. Fashchevskyi—1211113
WJun 27 · 08:55S. Prus—11811113I. Fashchevskyi—911841
S. Prus10
LSep 11 · 11:55S. Prus3.4011411882D. Maltsev1.30911811113LSep 11 · 02:45S. Prus3.0011911652T. Gil1.36911611113LSep 11 · 24:45M. Slozka1.5091111113S. Prus2.50111381LSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus1.8385111162D. Palii1.83111197113LSep 10 · 22:45O. Sydorchuk2.00101111123S. Prus1.731299101WSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus2.10115138113I. Fashchevskyi1.67811111182WSep 6 · 10:25M. Slozka1.44814881S. Prus2.63111211113LSep 6 · 09:25S. Prus2.636940T. Gil1.441111113WSep 6 · 08:25S. Prus1.4411119113R. Bihun2.63871171WSep 6 · 06:55S. Prus1.83111120113V. Kuzmych1.83882271
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 11 · 12:25D. Palii2.10121265163I. Fashchevskyi1.6710101111142WSep 11 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113D. Palii2.007970LSep 11 · 01:15O. Sydorchuk2.101615117113I. Fashchevskyi1.67141761192LSep 10 · 23:15M. Slozka1.73134119113I. Fashchevskyi2.00111151142LSep 10 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.7589121192T. Gil1.401111108113LSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus2.10115138113I. Fashchevskyi1.67811111182LSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.671111123I. Fashchevskyi2.1064100LSep 9 · 10:05O. Storozhenko1.6712611113I. Fashchevskyi2.101011481WSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov1.8381161172I. Fashchevskyi1.83115117113LSep 9 · 06:35I. Pytsko1.731211125133I. Fashchevskyi2.001471011112
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