TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105610
Played Sep 11Finished
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117119117––––
Dmytro Palii
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Fashchevskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Fashchevskyi above · Dmytro Palii below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 56 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Ivan Fashchevskyi at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Fashchevskyi 14–9 Dmytro Palii Dmytro Palii has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fashchevskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-9 in 23
Fashchevskyi
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fashchevskyi 1384 vs Palii 1495
Palii
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fashchevskyi 0% vs Palii 40%
Palii
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fashchevskyi 20% vs Palii 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fashchevskyi -5 · Palii +2
Fashchevskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Fashchevskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFashchevskyi 1.73 / Palii 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Fashchevskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13105610
Fashchevskyi1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 84 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it77% 57 of 74
Palii2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 15 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back33% 6 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFashchevskyi7wins
AwayPalii3wins
7 of 10 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFashchevskyi75%3 of 4
AwayPalii33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fashchevskyi4Palii6n = 10Palii took 6 of 10
S2Fashchevskyi7Palii3n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S3Fashchevskyi8Palii2n = 10Fashchevskyi took 8 of 10
S4Fashchevskyi4Palii4n = 8split evenly
S5Fashchevskyi4Palii3n = 7Fashchevskyi took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFashchevskyiPaliiF − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.439.5+4.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFashchevskyiPaliiBasisWin rate · lifetime282 / 563 vs 101 / 17550.1%57.7%282 / 563 vs 101 / 175Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FashchevskyiFashchevskyi 1.73/Palii 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Fashchevskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Fashchevskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 4 · 04:55I. Fashchevskyi—1111113D. Palii—6780
LJul 3 · 16:55I. Fashchevskyi—12851172D. Palii—1011117113
WJul 2 · 23:45I. Fashchevskyi—911118113D. Palii—11581172
WJun 30 · 10:55I. Fashchevskyi—8111111113D. Palii—11761332
WJun 29 · 18:25I. Fashchevskyi—1111113D. Palii—7860
LJun 18 · 09:25I. Fashchevskyi—91115792D. Palii—1191311113
WJun 17 · 12:55I. Fashchevskyi—111111113D. Palii—136571
LJun 13 · 08:55I. Fashchevskyi—81111592D. Palii—1111613113
WJun 12 · 14:55I. Fashchevskyi—117118113D. Palii—61181182
WJun 11 · 21:45I. Fashchevskyi—611711113D. Palii—11411852
I. Fashchevskyi10
LSep 11 · 01:15O. Sydorchuk2.101615117113I. Fashchevskyi1.67141761192LSep 10 · 23:15M. Slozka1.73134119113I. Fashchevskyi2.00111151142LSep 10 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.7589121192T. Gil1.401111108113LSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus2.10115138113I. Fashchevskyi1.67811111182LSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.671111123I. Fashchevskyi2.1064100LSep 9 · 10:05O. Storozhenko1.6712611113I. Fashchevskyi2.101011481WSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov1.8381161172I. Fashchevskyi1.83115117113LSep 9 · 06:35I. Pytsko1.731211125133I. Fashchevskyi2.001471011112LSep 9 · 04:35D. Maltsev1.80671114113I. Fashchevskyi1.91111151212WSep 8 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi2.001111113M. Potapov1.735890
D. Palii10
WSep 11 · 01:45D. Palii2.501111113T. Gil1.509850WSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus1.8385111162D. Palii1.83111197113LSep 10 · 21:45M. Slozka1.8311119113D. Palii1.83681131LSep 10 · 20:45O. Sydorchuk2.6311155113D. Palii1.448131181LJul 4 · 10:25S. Prus2.101111113D. Palii1.675830LJul 4 · 09:25D. Palii2.25911451I. Pytsko1.5711911113LJul 4 · 08:25D. Palii2.0011215882O. Storozhenko1.736111311113WJul 4 · 06:55D. Palii2.1011911113O. Alieksieev1.67811991LJul 4 · 04:55D. Palii2.006780I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113LJul 3 · 18:55D. Palii2.00111851O. Storozhenko1.7311711113
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