TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111081
Played Sep 11Finished
Dmytro Palii
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
121012106115111614
Ivan Fashchevskyi
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIvan Fashchevskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Palii above · Ivan Fashchevskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 16-14
Point 107 set 5, 16-14 — our read held Ivan Fashchevskyi at 54.0%
107 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Palii 9–15 Ivan Fashchevskyi Dmytro Palii has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-15 in 24
Fashchevskyi
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Palii 1478 vs Fashchevskyi 1403
Palii
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palii 40% vs Fashchevskyi 20%
Palii
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palii 30% vs Fashchevskyi 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Palii -1 · Fashchevskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Fashchevskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fashchevskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalii 2.10 / Fashchevskyi 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Fashchevskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13111081
Palii2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 17 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back30% 6 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 8
Fashchevskyi1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 83 of 163
Up 2–0, closes it84% 26 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePalii3wins
AwayFashchevskyi7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderFashchevskyi leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePalii40%2 of 5
AwayFashchevskyi80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Palii5Fashchevskyi5n = 10split evenly
S2Palii3Fashchevskyi7n = 10Fashchevskyi took 7 of 10
S3Palii1Fashchevskyi9n = 10Fashchevskyi took 9 of 10
S4Palii4Fashchevskyi3n = 7Palii took 4 of 7
S5Palii3Fashchevskyi3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaliiFashchevskyiP − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.943.1−5.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaliiFashchevskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 176 vs 283 / 56457.4%50.2%101 / 176 vs 283 / 564Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FashchevskyiPalii 2.10/Fashchevskyi 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Fashchevskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Palii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 03:15D. Palii—7970I. Fashchevskyi—1111113
LJul 4 · 04:55D. Palii—6780I. Fashchevskyi—1111113
WJul 3 · 16:55D. Palii—1011117113I. Fashchevskyi—12851172
LJul 2 · 23:45D. Palii—11581172I. Fashchevskyi—911118113
LJun 30 · 10:55D. Palii—11761332I. Fashchevskyi—8111111113
LJun 29 · 18:25D. Palii—7860I. Fashchevskyi—1111113
WJun 18 · 09:25D. Palii—1191311113I. Fashchevskyi—91115792
LJun 17 · 12:55D. Palii—136571I. Fashchevskyi—111111113
WJun 13 · 08:55D. Palii—1111613113I. Fashchevskyi—81111592
LJun 12 · 14:55D. Palii—61181182I. Fashchevskyi—117118113
D. Palii10
LSep 11 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113D. Palii2.007970WSep 11 · 01:45D. Palii2.501111113T. Gil1.509850WSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus1.8385111162D. Palii1.83111197113LSep 10 · 21:45M. Slozka1.8311119113D. Palii1.83681131LSep 10 · 20:45O. Sydorchuk2.6311155113D. Palii1.448131181LJul 4 · 10:25S. Prus2.101111113D. Palii1.675830LJul 4 · 09:25D. Palii2.25911451I. Pytsko1.5711911113LJul 4 · 08:25D. Palii2.0011215882O. Storozhenko1.736111311113WJul 4 · 06:55D. Palii2.1011911113O. Alieksieev1.67811991LJul 4 · 04:55D. Palii2.006780I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113
I. Fashchevskyi10
WSep 11 · 13:25S. Prus2.00561151I. Fashchevskyi1.7311114113WSep 11 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113D. Palii2.007970LSep 11 · 01:15O. Sydorchuk2.101615117113I. Fashchevskyi1.67141761192LSep 10 · 23:15M. Slozka1.73134119113I. Fashchevskyi2.00111151142LSep 10 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.7589121192T. Gil1.401111108113LSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus2.10115138113I. Fashchevskyi1.67811111182LSep 9 · 11:05Y. Tebenko1.671111123I. Fashchevskyi2.1064100LSep 9 · 10:05O. Storozhenko1.6712611113I. Fashchevskyi2.101011481WSep 9 · 08:35M. Potapov1.8381161172I. Fashchevskyi1.83115117113WJul 4 · 04:55D. Palii2.006780I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113
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