TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111283
Played Sep 11Finished
Dmytro Palii
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711118411118511
Denys Maltsev
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Palii to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Palii above · Denys Maltsev below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 87 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Dmytro Palii at 54.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Palii 7–8 Denys Maltsev Dmytro Palii has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:46What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Palii
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Palii 1496 vs Maltsev 1455
Palii
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palii 80% vs Maltsev 20%
Palii
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palii 40% vs Maltsev 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Palii +2 · Maltsev -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Palii)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maltsev form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalii 1.73 / Maltsev 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Palii)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111283
Palii1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite35% won 6 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Maltsev2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 94 of 211
Down 0–1, comes back20% 18 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePalii6wins
AwayMaltsev4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPalii leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePalii100%4 of 4
AwayMaltsev66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Palii4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S2Palii4Maltsev6n = 10Maltsev took 6 of 10
S3Palii5Maltsev5n = 10split evenly
S4Palii3Maltsev1n = 4Palii took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaliiMaltsevP − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.034.8−2.8per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaliiMaltsevBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 178 vs 453 / 88357.9%51.3%103 / 178 vs 453 / 883Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PaliiPalii 1.73/Maltsev 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Palii · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Maltsev won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 13 · 05:55D. Palii—91111113D. Maltsev—119891
WJun 12 · 12:55D. Palii—1111113D. Maltsev—6560
WJun 12 · 01:45D. Palii—2112113D. Maltsev—191070
LFeb 15 · 09:25D. Palii—8310D. Maltsev—1111113
WFeb 14 · 15:55D. Palii—121114113D. Maltsev—1461261
LDec 28 · 08:25D. Palii—6550D. Maltsev—1111113
WDec 27 · 14:25D. Palii—1110111123D. Maltsev—512119102
LDec 26 · 14:55D. Palii—5550D. Maltsev—111193
WDec 21 · 08:25D. Palii—118117113D. Maltsev—81181152
LDec 19 · 16:25D. Palii—6650D. Maltsev—1111113
D. Palii10
WSep 11 · 14:25D. Palii1.6711119113V. Kuzmych2.10761161WSep 11 · 12:25D. Palii2.10121265163I. Fashchevskyi1.6710101111142LSep 11 · 03:15I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113D. Palii2.007970WSep 11 · 01:45D. Palii2.501111113T. Gil1.509850WSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus1.8385111162D. Palii1.83111197113LSep 10 · 21:45M. Slozka1.8311119113D. Palii1.83681131LSep 10 · 20:45O. Sydorchuk2.6311155113D. Palii1.448131181LJul 4 · 10:25S. Prus2.101111113D. Palii1.675830LJul 4 · 09:25D. Palii2.25911451I. Pytsko1.5711911113LJul 4 · 08:25D. Palii2.0011215882O. Storozhenko1.736111311113
D. Maltsev10
LSep 11 · 13:55M. Slozka2.631112113D. Maltsev1.4461080WSep 11 · 11:55S. Prus3.4011411882D. Maltsev1.30911811113LSep 9 · 10:35D. Maltsev1.8311152972M. Potapov1.838131111113LSep 9 · 09:05D. Maltsev1.91511871Y. Tebenko1.8011511113LSep 9 · 07:35D. Maltsev2.25411861I. Pytsko1.5711811113WSep 9 · 06:05D. Maltsev2.10135411113O. Storozhenko1.67111111972WSep 9 · 04:35D. Maltsev1.80671114113I. Fashchevskyi1.91111151212LSep 8 · 19:05D. Maltsev2.007750O. Storozhenko1.731111113LSep 8 · 17:05M. Potapov1.831111113D. Maltsev1.837770LSep 8 · 15:05V. Moshovskyi1.7311111010113D. Maltsev2.0068121282
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