TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111224
Played Sep 11Finished
Ivan Demchenko
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
111311911––––
Oleg Gavryshko
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:46 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeOleg Gavryshko to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Demchenko above · Oleg Gavryshko below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 46 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Oleg Gavryshko at 75.1%
46 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Demchenko 1–12 Oleg Gavryshko Ivan Demchenko has won 1 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:46What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Gavryshko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-12 in 13
Gavryshko
Correct
gap of 11 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Demchenko 1702 vs Gavryshko 1738
Gavryshko
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Demchenko 60% vs Gavryshko 20%
Demchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Demchenko 40% vs Gavryshko 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Demchenko -1 · Gavryshko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Gavryshko) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gavryshko form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDemchenko 3.00 / Gavryshko 1.36
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Gavryshko)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13111224
Demchenko3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog25% won 21 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back10% 6 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Gavryshko1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 79 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it96% 45 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it83% 68 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDemchenko1wins
AwayGavryshko9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderGavryshko leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDemchenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayGavryshko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Demchenko3Gavryshko7n = 10Gavryshko took 7 of 10
S2Demchenko3Gavryshko7n = 10Gavryshko took 7 of 10
S3Demchenko3Gavryshko7n = 10Gavryshko took 7 of 10
S4Demchenko1Gavryshko5n = 6Gavryshko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricDemchenkoGavryshkoD − GBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match31.937.4−5.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDemchenkoGavryshkoBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 147 vs 326 / 62044.9%52.6%66 / 147 vs 326 / 620Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GavryshkoDemchenko 3.00/Gavryshko 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Gavryshko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gavryshko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 01:55I. Demchenko—1198101O. Gavryshko—61111123
WSep 6 · 04:25I. Demchenko—1411133O. Gavryshko—127110
LAug 16 · 22:55I. Demchenko—971181O. Gavryshko—11119113
LAug 15 · 21:25I. Demchenko—6111121O. Gavryshko—11112143
LAug 7 · 20:25I. Demchenko—911981O. Gavryshko—11311113
LAug 3 · 24:25I. Demchenko—5680O. Gavryshko—1111113
LAug 2 · 24:55I. Demchenko—11580O. Gavryshko—1311113
LJul 12 · 21:55I. Demchenko—9850O. Gavryshko—1111113
LJul 12 · 02:25I. Demchenko—611661O. Gavryshko—11811113
LJul 5 · 21:55I. Demchenko—11991172O. Gavryshko—511118113
I. Demchenko10
LSep 11 · 13:55I. Demchenko1.44111191192P. Plakushchyi2.63361113113WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101WSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4011611113I. Demchenko2.75911781
O. Gavryshko10
LSep 11 · 14:25O. Gavryshko1.836740A. Chepurnyi1.831111113LSep 7 · 03:25O. Gavryshko1.404125101O. Mishchenko2.75111011123WSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101LSep 7 · 24:25O. Gavryshko1.83147111292A. Chepurnyi1.831211814113LSep 6 · 22:55O. Gavryshko1.7325670M. Makienko2.002711113LSep 6 · 21:25O. Gavryshko2.50981191O. Dukhovenko1.5011118113LSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:25O. Dukhovenko1.50111169113O. Gavryshko2.5059111182WSep 6 · 24:25Y. Kryvorotko1.6111561272O. Gavryshko2.205111110113WSep 5 · 23:25O. Gavryshko1.831211113M. Makienko1.8310870
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