TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111220
Played Sep 11Finished
Ivan Demchenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1131169111113911
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeIvan Demchenko to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Demchenko above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Ivan Demchenko at 67.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Demchenko 5–3 Pavel Plakushchyi Pavel Plakushchyi has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:33What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Demchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Demchenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Demchenko 1716 vs Plakushchyi 1612
Demchenko
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Demchenko 60% vs Plakushchyi 80%
Plakushchyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Demchenko 40% vs Plakushchyi 60%
Plakushchyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Demchenko +1 · Plakushchyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Demchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDemchenko 1.44 / Plakushchyi 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Demchenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111220
Demchenko1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 45 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Plakushchyi2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 86 of 251
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 153
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeDemchenko5wins
AwayPlakushchyi3wins
3 of 8 to a deciderDemchenko leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDemchenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayPlakushchyin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Demchenko6Plakushchyi2n = 8Demchenko took 6 of 8
S2Demchenko7Plakushchyi1n = 8Demchenko took 7 of 8
S3Demchenko3Plakushchyi5n = 8Plakushchyi took 5 of 8
S4Demchenko3Plakushchyi2n = 5Demchenko took 3 of 5
S5Demchenko1Plakushchyi2n = 3Plakushchyi took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricDemchenkoPlakushchyiD − PBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match40.535.1+5.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDemchenkoPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 146 vs 305 / 68845.2%44.3%66 / 146 vs 305 / 688Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.535.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DemchenkoDemchenko 1.44/Plakushchyi 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Demchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 20 · 03:25I. Demchenko—1111113P. Plakushchyi—5560
WAug 19 · 02:55I. Demchenko—1113113P. Plakushchyi—41170
WAug 7 · 15:25I. Demchenko—11118133P. Plakushchyi—3911111
LJul 12 · 22:55I. Demchenko—712651P. Plakushchyi—111011113
LJul 11 · 21:55I. Demchenko—128111192P. Plakushchyi—1011138113
WJul 5 · 22:55I. Demchenko—111188123P. Plakushchyi—451111102
WJul 5 · 24:55I. Demchenko—1211113P. Plakushchyi—10570
LMay 22 · 18:53I. Demchenko—91191182P. Plakushchyi—119118113
I. Demchenko10
WSep 7 · 03:55I. Demchenko3.7511611113O. Dukhovenko1.25911921LSep 7 · 01:55O. Gavryshko1.3661111123I. Demchenko3.001198101WSep 7 · 24:55I. Demchenko2.631111113M. Makienko1.449690WSep 6 · 23:55O. Mishchenko2.2597111162I. Demchenko1.57111155113LSep 6 · 22:25I. Demchenko2.501113751A. Chepurnyi1.5071511113WSep 6 · 04:25O. Gavryshko1.30127110I. Demchenko3.401411133LSep 6 · 02:55I. Demchenko2.1010770M. Makienko1.671211113LSep 6 · 24:55A. Chepurnyi1.441051114123I. Demchenko2.631211912102LSep 5 · 22:55Y. Kryvorotko1.4011611113I. Demchenko2.75911781LSep 5 · 21:55O. Dukhovenko1.281111113I. Demchenko3.504930
P. Plakushchyi10
WSep 10 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk2.508680P. Plakushchyi1.501111113LSep 10 · 02:55O. Mishchenko2.10117115113P. Plakushchyi1.6761141172WSep 10 · 01:25V. Kovalenko2.001211811122P. Plakushchyi1.73144116143WSep 9 · 23:25E. Rubtsov2.751181251P. Plakushchyi1.4061114113WSep 9 · 21:25V. Panasenko1.839580P. Plakushchyi1.831111113WSep 9 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.40711311113E. Rubtsov2.7511711792LSep 9 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.131111113P. Plakushchyi5.502860LSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.574760O. Kovalchuk2.251111113WSep 8 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.91918611102P. Plakushchyi1.801116119123LSep 8 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi1.7312117101O. Mishchenko2.0014511123
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