TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101158
Played Sep 10Finished
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611811––––
Pavel Plakushchyi
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:18 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timePavel Plakushchyi to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr V Kovalchuk above · Pavel Plakushchyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Plakushchyi at 60.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr V Kovalchuk 35–69 Pavel Plakushchyi Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 35 of their 104 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Plakushchyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-69 in 104
Plakushchyi
Correct
gap of 34 in 104, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kovalchuk 1503 vs Plakushchyi 1602
Plakushchyi
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalchuk 80% vs Plakushchyi 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalchuk 60% vs Plakushchyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalchuk +4 · Plakushchyi -1
Kovalchuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Plakushchyi) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Plakushchyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalchuk 2.50 / Plakushchyi 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Plakushchyi)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13101158
Kovalchuk2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 83 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 83
Plakushchyi1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 48 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it83% 33 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKovalchuk2wins
AwayPlakushchyi8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPlakushchyi leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKovalchuk16.7%1 of 6
AwayPlakushchyi75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kovalchuk6Plakushchyi4n = 10Kovalchuk took 6 of 10
S2Kovalchuk5Plakushchyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Kovalchuk1Plakushchyi9n = 10Plakushchyi took 9 of 10
S4Kovalchuk2Plakushchyi6n = 8Plakushchyi took 6 of 8
S5Kovalchuk1Plakushchyi2n = 3Plakushchyi took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKovalchukPlakushchyiK − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.340.2−6.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalchukPlakushchyiBasisWin rate · lifetime330 / 785 vs 304 / 68742%44.3%330 / 785 vs 304 / 687Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PlakushchyiKovalchuk 2.50/Plakushchyi 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Plakushchyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Plakushchyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk—1111113P. Plakushchyi—4760
LSep 3 · 14:25O. Kovalchuk—118781P. Plakushchyi—61111113
LSep 3 · 03:55O. Kovalchuk—11981372P. Plakushchyi—9111111113
LAug 26 · 13:55O. Kovalchuk—2880P. Plakushchyi—1111113
LAug 26 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk—1013181P. Plakushchyi—121111113
LAug 24 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk—116341P. Plakushchyi—61111113
LAug 20 · 19:55O. Kovalchuk—119661P. Plakushchyi—81111113
WAug 18 · 21:25O. Kovalchuk—611711113P. Plakushchyi—11711782
LJul 30 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk—813641P. Plakushchyi—111111113
LJul 29 · 01:25O. Kovalchuk—11113372P. Plakushchyi—681111113
O. Kovalchuk10
WSep 10 · 01:55V. Panasenko1.57411551O. Kovalchuk2.2511711113WSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.2011911113O. Mishchenko1.61511531WSep 9 · 23:55V. Kovalenko1.83711461O. Kovalchuk1.8311611113WSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk1.83111177113E. Rubtsov1.8345111182LSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030WSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460WSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.574760O. Kovalchuk2.251111113LSep 8 · 22:55O. Dukhovenko1.171111113O. Kovalchuk4.508660LSep 8 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.73951111113O. Kovalchuk2.0011118532LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113
P. Plakushchyi10
LSep 10 · 02:55O. Mishchenko2.10117115113P. Plakushchyi1.6761141172WSep 10 · 01:25V. Kovalenko2.001211811122P. Plakushchyi1.73144116143WSep 9 · 23:25E. Rubtsov2.751181251P. Plakushchyi1.4061114113WSep 9 · 21:25V. Panasenko1.839580P. Plakushchyi1.831111113WSep 9 · 03:55P. Plakushchyi1.40711311113E. Rubtsov2.7511711792LSep 9 · 01:55O. Dukhovenko1.131111113P. Plakushchyi5.502860LSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.574760O. Kovalchuk2.251111113WSep 8 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.91918611102P. Plakushchyi1.801116119123LSep 8 · 22:25P. Plakushchyi1.7312117101O. Mishchenko2.0014511123LSep 7 · 17:10O. Kolbasenko1.30111111113P. Plakushchyi3.40137641
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