TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13104199
Played Sep 10Finished
Volodymyr Panasenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411117511511––
Oleksandr V Kovalchuk
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Panasenko to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Panasenko above · Oleksandr V Kovalchuk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 65 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Volodymyr Panasenko at 58.6%
65 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Panasenko 1–0 Oleksandr V Kovalchuk Oleksandr V Kovalchuk has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Panasenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Panasenko 1605 vs Kovalchuk 1486
Panasenko
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Panasenko 20% vs Kovalchuk 80%
Kovalchuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Panasenko 40% vs Kovalchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Panasenko -4 · Kovalchuk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Panasenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPanasenko 1.57 / Kovalchuk 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Panasenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13104199
Panasenko1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 29 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it82% 22 of 27
Kovalchuk2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 83 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back18% 23 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePanasenko1wins
AwayKovalchuk0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderPanasenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPanasenkoKovalchukP − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match47.038.0+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPanasenkoKovalchukBasisWin rate · lifetime30 / 53 vs 330 / 78556.6%42%30 / 53 vs 330 / 785Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.636.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PanasenkoPanasenko 1.57/Kovalchuk 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Panasenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 8 · 21:55V. Panasenko—951111113O. Kovalchuk—11118532
V. Panasenko10
LSep 10 · 24:25V. Panasenko1.4451190E. Rubtsov2.631113113LSep 9 · 22:55V. Panasenko1.737127121O. Mishchenko2.00111011143LSep 9 · 21:25V. Panasenko1.839580P. Plakushchyi1.831111113LSep 9 · 03:25O. Dukhovenko1.5311111113113V. Panasenko2.3813651572WSep 9 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.8311911113O. Mishchenko1.83711961WSep 9 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.731112113E. Rubtsov2.0051050LSep 8 · 23:55V. Panasenko1.91918611102P. Plakushchyi1.801116119123WSep 8 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.73951111113O. Kovalchuk2.0011118532LSep 2 · 03:25V. Khamurda3.4011114113V. Panasenko1.30771161WSep 2 · 02:25V. Panasenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.917180
O. Kovalchuk10
WSep 10 · 24:55O. Kovalchuk2.2011911113O. Mishchenko1.61511531WSep 9 · 23:55V. Kovalenko1.83711461O. Kovalchuk1.8311611113WSep 9 · 22:25O. Kovalchuk1.83111177113E. Rubtsov1.8345111182LSep 9 · 04:25O. Mishchenko1.5061O. Kovalchuk2.5030WSep 9 · 02:55O. Kovalchuk1.731111113E. Rubtsov2.007460WSep 9 · 24:55P. Plakushchyi1.574760O. Kovalchuk2.251111113LSep 8 · 22:55O. Dukhovenko1.171111113O. Kovalchuk4.508660LSep 8 · 21:55V. Panasenko1.73951111113O. Kovalchuk2.0011118532LSep 3 · 20:25O. Kovalchuk3.75119251M. Makienko1.2531111113LSep 3 · 18:25E. Rubtsov2.0081211113O. Kovalchuk1.731110541
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