TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13106650
Played Sep 10Finished
Maksim Ovcharenko
Home
1.46
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10129111311116113
Marcin Stepien
Away
2.42
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:03 and never touched — 63.1% is still 63.1%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
63.1%
63.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
10129111311116113
H2H Maksim Ovcharenko 9–3 Marcin Stepien Marcin Stepien has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (62%)
Ovcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Ovcharenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovcharenko 1724 vs Stepien 1668
Ovcharenko
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovcharenko 80% vs Stepien 60%
Ovcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovcharenko 70% vs Stepien 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovcharenko +3 · Stepien -2
Ovcharenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Ovcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvcharenko 1.46 / Stepien 2.42
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13106650
Ovcharenko1.46
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 32 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it86% 25 of 29
Stepien2.42
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 34 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvcharenko7wins
AwayStepien3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvcharenko87.5%7 of 8
AwayStepienn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovcharenko8Stepien2n = 10Ovcharenko took 8 of 10
S2Ovcharenko6Stepien4n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Ovcharenko5Stepien5n = 10split evenly
S4Ovcharenko2Stepien2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvcharenkoStepienO − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match33.629.8+3.8per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvcharenkoStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 173 vs 645 / 117262.4%55%108 / 173 vs 645 / 1172Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoOvcharenko 1.46/Stepien 2.42
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ovcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 19:05M. Ovcharenko—1111113M. Stepien—8850
WSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko—11116113M. Stepien—341181
LSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko—114761M. Stepien—81111113
WFeb 28 · 13:05M. Ovcharenko—1111133M. Stepien—89110
WFeb 24 · 07:00M. Ovcharenko—111112113M. Stepien—671461
LFeb 23 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko—6590M. Stepien—1111113
LFeb 20 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko—9790M. Stepien—1111113
WFeb 16 · 14:10M. Ovcharenko—1111113M. Stepien—6590
WFeb 16 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko—114118113M. Stepien—81191182
WFeb 15 · 22:05M. Ovcharenko—1111113M. Stepien—7450
M. Ovcharenko10
WSep 8 · 13:40S. Radlo1.81118231M. Ovcharenko1.9091111113WSep 8 · 11:00D. Stapor2.75116891M. Ovcharenko1.4191111113WSep 8 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.47119118113B. Molka2.5051161182LSep 8 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.291110661S. Wloszek3.0591211113WSep 8 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.491111113M. Burkacki2.459350LSep 8 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.3311880S. Radlo2.851311113LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113WSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113
M. Stepien10
LSep 7 · 13:10M. Stepien1.48811711102B. Molka2.35115115123LSep 7 · 12:00M. Stepien2.4111511142D. Skvarskyi1.46811911113WSep 7 · 10:00B. Molka2.2511891192M. Stepien1.57511115113WSep 7 · 08:00S. Radlo2.419570M. Stepien1.461111113WSep 7 · 07:00M. Stepien1.361113113M. Burkacki2.8071160LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113
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