TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13092786
Played Sep 7Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
1.48
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111157111151012
Bartlomiej Molka
Away
2.35
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
8111157111151012
H2H Marcin Stepien 64–57 Bartlomiej Molka Bartlomiej Molka has won 57 of their 121 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Stepien beat Molka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.48 (61%)
Stepien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
64-57 in 121
Stepien
Wrong
gap of 7 in 121, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1681 vs Molka 1639
Stepien
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 60% vs Molka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 70% vs Molka 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien -1 · Molka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Stepien)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.48 / Molka 2.35
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Stepien)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13092786
Stepien1.48
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 202 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it94% 140 of 149
Up 1–0, closes it81% 164 of 203
Molka2.35
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 181 of 408
Down 0–1, comes back21% 48 of 229
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 131
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien5wins
AwayMolka5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien66.7%4 of 6
AwayMolka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien6Molka4n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S2Stepien7Molka3n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S3Stepien7Molka3n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S4Stepien2Molka5n = 7Molka took 5 of 7
S5Stepien1Molka3n = 4Molka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienMolkaS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.940.2+0.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienMolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime652 / 1183 vs 534 / 116955.1%45.7%652 / 1183 vs 534 / 1169Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienStepien 1.48/Molka 2.35
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.8%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Molka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 10:00M. Stepien—511115113B. Molka—11891192
LSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien—5121261B. Molka—111014113
WAug 31 · 10:00M. Stepien—1114113B. Molka—81270
WAug 30 · 16:35M. Stepien—1111113B. Molka—8690
LAug 24 · 13:30M. Stepien—111511742B. Molka—717911113
LAug 24 · 08:30M. Stepien—118781B. Molka—61111113
LAug 23 · 20:35M. Stepien—111111772B. Molka—136911113
WAug 21 · 10:30M. Stepien—111111113B. Molka—461351
WAug 20 · 11:30M. Stepien—1312123B. Molka—1110100
LAug 17 · 05:30M. Stepien—188111142B. Molka—201194113
M. Stepien10
LSep 7 · 12:00M. Stepien2.4111511142D. Skvarskyi1.46811911113WSep 7 · 10:00B. Molka2.2511891192M. Stepien1.57511115113WSep 7 · 08:00S. Radlo2.419570M. Stepien1.461111113WSep 7 · 07:00M. Stepien1.361113113M. Burkacki2.8071160LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570
B. Molka10
WSep 7 · 11:00S. Radlo1.909490B. Molka1.801111113LSep 7 · 10:00B. Molka2.2511891192M. Stepien1.57511115113WSep 7 · 09:00B. Molka1.4511812133M. Burkacki2.4291110111LSep 7 · 07:30B. Molka2.14971171M. Lysakowski1.5811118113WSep 7 · 05:30B. Molka2.10111011113D. Skvarskyi1.65312461WSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 22:05S. Wloszek2.074101251B. Molka1.62111210113LSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 18:35D. Stapor1.6951050B. Molka1.971112113WSep 6 · 16:35J. Masternak1.95116451B. Molka1.7491111113
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