TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091208
Played Sep 7Finished
Bartlomiej Molka
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115811911115911
Marcin Stepien
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
115811911115911
H2H Bartlomiej Molka 56–62 Marcin Stepien Bartlomiej Molka has won 56 of their 118 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:16What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Stepien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-62 in 118
Stepien
Correct
gap of 6 in 118, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molka 1635 vs Stepien 1683
Stepien
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molka 80% vs Stepien 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molka 70% vs Stepien 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Molka +1 · Stepien +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolka 2.25 / Stepien 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Stepien)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13091208
Molka2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 181 of 408
Down 0–1, comes back21% 48 of 229
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 131
Stepien1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 202 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it94% 140 of 149
Up 1–0, closes it81% 164 of 203
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolka5wins
AwayStepien5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolka100%3 of 3
AwayStepien71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molka3Stepien7n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S2Molka6Stepien4n = 10Molka took 6 of 10
S3Molka3Stepien7n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S4Molka5Stepien3n = 8Molka took 5 of 8
S5Molka3Stepien2n = 5Molka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolkaStepienM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.142.9−1.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolkaStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime533 / 1167 vs 651 / 118145.7%55.1%533 / 1167 vs 651 / 1181Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienMolka 2.25/Stepien 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 16:35B. Molka—8690M. Stepien—1111113
WAug 24 · 13:30B. Molka—717911113M. Stepien—111511742
WAug 24 · 08:30B. Molka—61111113M. Stepien—118781
WAug 23 · 20:35B. Molka—136911113M. Stepien—111111772
LAug 21 · 10:30B. Molka—461351M. Stepien—111111113
LAug 20 · 11:30B. Molka—1110100M. Stepien—1312123
WAug 17 · 05:30B. Molka—201194113M. Stepien—188111142
LAug 16 · 16:35B. Molka—91112392M. Stepien—1191011113
WAug 14 · 13:40B. Molka—12119113M. Stepien—1051171
LAug 14 · 11:00B. Molka—61181172M. Stepien—118118113
B. Molka10
WSep 7 · 11:00S. Radlo1.909490B. Molka1.801111113WSep 7 · 09:00B. Molka1.4511812133M. Burkacki2.4291110111LSep 7 · 07:30B. Molka2.14971171M. Lysakowski1.5811118113WSep 7 · 05:30B. Molka2.10111011113D. Skvarskyi1.65312461WSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 22:05S. Wloszek2.074101251B. Molka1.62111210113LSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 18:35D. Stapor1.6951050B. Molka1.971112113WSep 6 · 16:35J. Masternak1.95116451B. Molka1.7491111113WSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113
M. Stepien10
WSep 7 · 08:00S. Radlo2.419570M. Stepien1.461111113WSep 7 · 07:00M. Stepien1.361113113M. Burkacki2.8071160LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181
Upcoming Matches
B. Molka
Nothing scheduled
M. Stepien
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