TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091012
Played Sep 7Finished
Bartlomiej Molka
Home
1.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11981112101311––
Mateusz Burkacki
Away
2.42
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:36 and never touched — 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Molka to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
11981112101311––
H2H Bartlomiej Molka 14–10 Mateusz Burkacki Mateusz Burkacki has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:36What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Molka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-10 in 24
Molka
Correct
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molka 1628 vs Burkacki 1460
Molka
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molka 60% vs Burkacki 20%
Molka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molka 70% vs Burkacki 30%
Molka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molka -1 · Burkacki -4
Burkacki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Molka) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burkacki form (20%) is below what odds imply (41%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolka 1.45 / Burkacki 2.42
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Molka)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13091012
Molka1.45
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 60 of 121
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Burkacki2.42
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 47 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolka5wins
AwayBurkacki5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolka100%3 of 3
AwayBurkacki71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molka3Burkacki7n = 10Burkacki took 7 of 10
S2Molka5Burkacki5n = 10split evenly
S3Molka5Burkacki5n = 10split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolkaBurkackiM − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.329.9+0.4per matchSweeps35−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolkaBurkackiBasisWin rate · lifetime532 / 1166 vs 81 / 20345.6%39.9%532 / 1166 vs 81 / 203Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolkaMolka 1.45/Burkacki 2.42
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Molka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Molka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 09:30B. Molka—1112113M. Burkacki—71070
LJul 7 · 13:10B. Molka—6970M. Burkacki—1111113
WJul 7 · 05:00B. Molka—101411113M. Burkacki—1212671
WJul 6 · 05:30B. Molka—1111113M. Burkacki—5640
LJul 3 · 05:30B. Molka—8780M. Burkacki—1111113
WJul 2 · 09:00B. Molka—61212113M. Burkacki—11101021
WJun 29 · 13:00B. Molka—1111113M. Burkacki—8680
LJun 29 · 05:30B. Molka—9940M. Burkacki—1111113
LJun 28 · 20:35B. Molka—8850M. Burkacki—1111113
LJun 26 · 09:30B. Molka—81280M. Burkacki—1114113
B. Molka10
LSep 7 · 10:00B. Molka2.2511891192M. Stepien1.57511115113LSep 7 · 07:30B. Molka2.14971171M. Lysakowski1.5811118113WSep 7 · 05:30B. Molka2.10111011113D. Skvarskyi1.65312461WSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 22:05S. Wloszek2.074101251B. Molka1.62111210113LSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 18:35D. Stapor1.6951050B. Molka1.971112113WSep 6 · 16:35J. Masternak1.95116451B. Molka1.7491111113WSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 5 · 14:45B. Molka1.82911991S. Radlo1.8211911113
M. Burkacki10
LSep 7 · 10:30D. Skvarskyi1.4131111143M. Burkacki2.601184121LSep 7 · 07:00M. Stepien1.361113113M. Burkacki2.8071160LSep 7 · 05:00S. Radlo1.441111113M. Burkacki2.507970LSep 4 · 13:00M. Burkacki1.984930P. Gola1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113WSep 4 · 09:30S. Radlo1.489990M. Burkacki2.361111113WSep 4 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.051511118163P. Gola1.68178611142LSep 4 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.381113811113M. Burkacki2.6541511492LSep 4 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.2941111872M. Lysakowski1.51115911113LSep 3 · 12:40M. Lysakowski1.7511412133M. Burkacki1.9851110111
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