TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091870
Played Sep 7Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
2.41
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118511119111411
Dmytro Skvarskyi
Away
1.46
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:38 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeDmytro Skvarskyi to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
82 points played in total.
Set by set
118511119111411
H2H Marcin Stepien 3–14 Dmytro Skvarskyi Marcin Stepien has won 3 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:38What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (62%)
Skvarskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-14 in 17
Skvarskyi
Correct
gap of 11 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1693 vs Skvarskyi 1654
Stepien
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 80% vs Skvarskyi 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 70% vs Skvarskyi 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien +3 · Skvarskyi +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Skvarskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvarskyi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 2.41 / Skvarskyi 1.46
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Skvarskyi)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13091870
Stepien2.41
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 35 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Skvarskyi1.46
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 57 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it77% 33 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien3wins
AwaySkvarskyi7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkvarskyi leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien50%3 of 6
AwaySkvarskyi100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien6Skvarskyi4n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S2Stepien4Skvarskyi6n = 10Skvarskyi took 6 of 10
S3Stepien3Skvarskyi7n = 10Skvarskyi took 7 of 10
S4Stepien3Skvarskyi4n = 7Skvarskyi took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienSkvarskyiStepien − SkvarskyiBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.637.9−3.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienSkvarskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime652 / 1182 vs 130 / 19455.2%67%652 / 1182 vs 130 / 194Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvarskyiStepien 2.41/Skvarskyi 1.46
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Skvarskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Skvarskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 11:30M. Stepien—11113133D. Skvarskyi—6511111
WJul 17 · 11:00M. Stepien—11619113D. Skvarskyi—2111751
LJul 15 · 11:30M. Stepien—911651D. Skvarskyi—11711113
LApr 13 · 09:00M. Stepien—11861192D. Skvarskyi—911119113
LApr 12 · 23:45M. Stepien—14110D. Skvarskyi—1111133
LApr 12 · 20:35M. Stepien—6860D. Skvarskyi—1111113
LApr 7 · 08:00M. Stepien—11117892D. Skvarskyi—551111113
LApr 6 · 15:00M. Stepien—571391D. Skvarskyi—111111113
WFeb 28 · 11:05M. Stepien—1111113D. Skvarskyi—7680
LFeb 24 · 10:00M. Stepien—136891D. Skvarskyi—111111113
M. Stepien10
LSep 7 · 13:10M. Stepien1.48811711102B. Molka2.35115115123WSep 7 · 10:00B. Molka2.2511891192M. Stepien1.57511115113WSep 7 · 08:00S. Radlo2.419570M. Stepien1.461111113WSep 7 · 07:00M. Stepien1.361113113M. Burkacki2.8071160LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570
D. Skvarskyi10
WSep 7 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi1.8711111410113M. Lysakowski1.83613121232WSep 7 · 10:30D. Skvarskyi1.4131111143M. Burkacki2.601184121WSep 7 · 08:30M. Lysakowski1.8613491132D. Skvarskyi1.831111116113WSep 7 · 06:30S. Radlo2.051061181D. Skvarskyi1.7012118113LSep 7 · 05:30B. Molka2.10111011113D. Skvarskyi1.65312461WSep 5 · 14:15D. Skvarskyi1.5711915113J. Masternak2.288111361LSep 5 · 12:05D. Skvarskyi1.5091210111S. Radlo2.40111012133LSep 5 · 10:35D. Skvarskyi1.42711871B. Molka2.5011611113WSep 5 · 09:05D. Skvarskyi1.41971111133J. Masternak2.70111168112WSep 5 · 07:35D. Skvarskyi1.521111143S. Wloszek2.3756120
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