TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13092785
Played Sep 7Finished
Dmytro Skvarskyi
Home
1.87
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116111314121012113
Michal Lysakowski
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
103 points played in total.
Set by set
116111314121012113
H2H Dmytro Skvarskyi 8–10 Michal Lysakowski Dmytro Skvarskyi has won 8 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Skvarskyi beat Lysakowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Lysakowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-10 in 18
Lysakowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skvarskyi 1665 vs Lysakowski 1665
—
Too close
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skvarskyi 80% vs Lysakowski 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skvarskyi 70% vs Lysakowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skvarskyi +4 · Lysakowski +2
Skvarskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lysakowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkvarskyi 1.87 / Lysakowski 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lysakowski)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13092785
Skvarskyi1.87
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 5 of 10
Down 0–1, comes back43% 3 of 7
Lysakowski1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 187 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it90% 119 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it74% 160 of 217
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkvarskyi3wins
AwayLysakowski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkvarskyi25%1 of 4
AwayLysakowski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skvarskyi4Lysakowski6n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S2Skvarskyi3Lysakowski7n = 10Lysakowski took 7 of 10
S3Skvarskyi6Lysakowski4n = 10Skvarskyi took 6 of 10
S4Skvarskyi3Lysakowski7n = 10Lysakowski took 7 of 10
S5Skvarskyi2Lysakowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkvarskyiLysakowskiS − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.841.9−3.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkvarskyiLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 195 vs 645 / 132167.2%48.8%131 / 195 vs 645 / 1321Avg sets wonper match2.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiSkvarskyi 1.87/Lysakowski 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skvarskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 08:30D. Skvarskyi—1111116113M. Lysakowski—13491132
LSep 3 · 06:00D. Skvarskyi—341121M. Lysakowski—11118113
LSep 1 · 08:30D. Skvarskyi—711117102M. Lysakowski—119711123
LJul 17 · 09:00D. Skvarskyi—115931M. Lysakowski—71111113
WApr 13 · 13:40D. Skvarskyi—11711113M. Lysakowski—511661
LApr 13 · 11:00D. Skvarskyi—11129121M. Lysakowski—61411143
LApr 12 · 22:05D. Skvarskyi—111061192M. Lysakowski—412118113
LApr 10 · 08:30D. Skvarskyi—6101171M. Lysakowski—11128113
WApr 7 · 05:00D. Skvarskyi—661411113M. Lysakowski—111112752
LFeb 28 · 12:35D. Skvarskyi—811661M. Lysakowski—11811113
D. Skvarskyi10
WSep 7 · 12:00M. Stepien2.4111511142D. Skvarskyi1.46811911113WSep 7 · 10:30D. Skvarskyi1.4131111143M. Burkacki2.601184121WSep 7 · 08:30M. Lysakowski1.8613491132D. Skvarskyi1.831111116113WSep 7 · 06:30S. Radlo2.051061181D. Skvarskyi1.7012118113LSep 7 · 05:30B. Molka2.10111011113D. Skvarskyi1.65312461WSep 5 · 14:15D. Skvarskyi1.5711915113J. Masternak2.288111361LSep 5 · 12:05D. Skvarskyi1.5091210111S. Radlo2.40111012133LSep 5 · 10:35D. Skvarskyi1.42711871B. Molka2.5011611113WSep 5 · 09:05D. Skvarskyi1.41971111133J. Masternak2.70111168112WSep 5 · 07:35D. Skvarskyi1.521111143S. Wloszek2.3756120
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 7 · 11:30M. Lysakowski1.361111411123M. Burkacki2.75851113102WSep 7 · 09:30S. Radlo2.101148101M. Lysakowski1.6091111123LSep 7 · 08:30M. Lysakowski1.8613491132D. Skvarskyi1.831111116113WSep 7 · 07:30B. Molka2.14971171M. Lysakowski1.5811118113WSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 4 · 12:30S. Radlo1.536660M. Lysakowski2.351111113LSep 4 · 12:00M. Lysakowski2.009470P. Gola1.721111113LSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341LSep 4 · 08:00S. Radlo2.54911118113M. Lysakowski1.4611771192WSep 4 · 07:00M. Lysakowski2.101113113M. Stepien1.6581180
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