TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13097822
Played Sep 8Finished
Maksim Ovcharenko
Home
1.47
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115911116811118
Bartlomiej Molka
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
115911116811118
H2H Maksim Ovcharenko 8–5 Bartlomiej Molka Bartlomiej Molka has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Ovcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Ovcharenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovcharenko 1699 vs Molka 1651
Ovcharenko
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovcharenko 40% vs Molka 80%
Molka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovcharenko 60% vs Molka 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovcharenko -1 · Molka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Ovcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvcharenko 1.47 / Molka 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13097822
Ovcharenko1.47
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 29 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Molka2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 182 of 408
Down 0–1, comes back21% 47 of 227
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 132
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvcharenko7wins
AwayMolka3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvcharenko100%6 of 6
AwayMolka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovcharenko6Molka4n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S2Ovcharenko6Molka4n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Ovcharenko7Molka3n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S4Ovcharenko1Molka2n = 3Molka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvcharenkoMolkaO − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.028.6+4.4per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvcharenkoMolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 170 vs 537 / 117361.8%45.8%105 / 170 vs 537 / 1173Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoOvcharenko 1.47/Molka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.4%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ovcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko—712281B. Molka—111011113
WSep 6 · 20:35M. Ovcharenko—1111113B. Molka—9540
WFeb 28 · 14:45M. Ovcharenko—1111113B. Molka—8440
WFeb 28 · 10:35M. Ovcharenko—1111113B. Molka—4660
WFeb 27 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko—1171110113B. Molka—71141272
WFeb 21 · 10:05M. Ovcharenko—381112113B. Molka—111181032
WFeb 20 · 13:40M. Ovcharenko—1111113B. Molka—8780
WFeb 20 · 08:00M. Ovcharenko—1111113B. Molka—7650
LFeb 19 · 12:30M. Ovcharenko—7260B. Molka—1111113
LFeb 16 · 06:30M. Ovcharenko—78110B. Molka—1111133
M. Ovcharenko10
WSep 8 · 11:00D. Stapor2.75116891M. Ovcharenko1.4191111113LSep 8 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.291110661S. Wloszek3.0591211113WSep 8 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.491111113M. Burkacki2.459350LSep 8 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.3311880S. Radlo2.851311113LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113WSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113LSep 6 · 16:05S. Wloszek3.151111101113M. Ovcharenko1.2863121182WSep 6 · 15:05J. Masternak2.805840M. Ovcharenko1.351111113
B. Molka10
LSep 8 · 12:00B. Molka1.75137121082S. Radlo1.9511111012113WSep 8 · 08:00D. Stapor1.83531191B. Molka1.8611112113WSep 8 · 07:00B. Molka1.57101111113S. Wloszek2.15128971LSep 8 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.5011119113B. Molka1.47851181WSep 7 · 13:10M. Stepien1.48811711102B. Molka2.35115115123WSep 7 · 11:00S. Radlo1.909490B. Molka1.801111113LSep 7 · 10:00B. Molka2.2511891192M. Stepien1.57511115113WSep 7 · 09:00B. Molka1.4511812133M. Burkacki2.4291110111WSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113LSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.