TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13098042
Played Sep 8Finished
Dawid Stapor
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119611811911––
Maksim Ovcharenko
Away
1.41
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:47 and never touched — 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
119611811911––
H2H Dawid Stapor 5–6 Maksim Ovcharenko Dawid Stapor has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:47What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (66%)
Ovcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1535 vs Ovcharenko 1709
Ovcharenko
Correct
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Ovcharenko 40%
Stapor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 40% vs Ovcharenko 60%
Ovcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +1 · Ovcharenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Ovcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovcharenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 2.75 / Ovcharenko 1.41
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13098042
Stapor2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 42 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back26% 12 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Ovcharenko1.41
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite73% won 29 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor4wins
AwayOvcharenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor66.7%2 of 3
AwayOvcharenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor3Ovcharenko7n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S2Stapor3Ovcharenko7n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S3Stapor5Ovcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Stapor1Ovcharenko3n = 4Ovcharenko took 3 of 4
S5Stapor2Ovcharenko1n = 3Stapor took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporOvcharenkoS − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.735.8−5.1per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporOvcharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime485 / 915 vs 106 / 17153%62%485 / 915 vs 106 / 171Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoStapor 2.75/Ovcharenko 1.41
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ovcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor—3960M. Ovcharenko—1111113
LFeb 25 · 09:00D. Stapor—7830M. Ovcharenko—1111113
WFeb 24 · 09:00D. Stapor—1111113M. Ovcharenko—7510
WFeb 19 · 13:30D. Stapor—713118113M. Ovcharenko—111181192
WFeb 19 · 08:00D. Stapor—511117113M. Ovcharenko—11851162
LFeb 17 · 08:30D. Stapor—10450M. Ovcharenko—1211113
LFeb 13 · 06:00D. Stapor—8780M. Ovcharenko—1111113
WApr 27 · 20:00D. Stapor—13411113M. Ovcharenko—1111881
LApr 26 · 22:40D. Stapor—8670M. Ovcharenko—1111113
LApr 26 · 20:30D. Stapor—11811922M. Ovcharenko—811911113
D. Stapor10
WSep 8 · 09:30D. Stapor1.601111113M. Burkacki2.108660LSep 8 · 08:00D. Stapor1.83531191B. Molka1.8611112113WSep 8 · 06:30D. Stapor1.8512111113113S. Radlo1.8514651552WSep 8 · 05:00D. Stapor1.701113113S. Wloszek1.9651160WSep 6 · 22:35J. Masternak—1111138102D. Stapor—741511123LSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113LSep 6 · 19:35J. Masternak2.301111113D. Stapor1.504970LSep 6 · 18:35D. Stapor1.6951050B. Molka1.971112113LSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 6 · 17:05D. Stapor1.601081171S. Wloszek2.1012115113
M. Ovcharenko10
WSep 8 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.47119118113B. Molka2.5051161182LSep 8 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.291110661S. Wloszek3.0591211113WSep 8 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.491111113M. Burkacki2.459350LSep 8 · 05:30M. Ovcharenko1.3311880S. Radlo2.851311113LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113WSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113LSep 6 · 16:05S. Wloszek3.151111101113M. Ovcharenko1.2863121182WSep 6 · 15:05J. Masternak2.805840M. Ovcharenko1.351111113
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