TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106584
Played Sep 10Finished
Tomas Holomek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121012117118118
Patrik Muller
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:33 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timePatrik Muller to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Holomek above · Patrik Muller below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 100 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Patrik Muller at 56.2%
100 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Holomek 3–5 Patrik Muller Tomas Holomek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Muller
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Muller
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holomek 1153 vs Muller 1227
Muller
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holomek 0% vs Muller 20%
Muller
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holomek 10% vs Muller 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holomek -5 · Muller -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Muller)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolomek 2.10 / Muller 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Muller)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13106584
Holomek2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back20% 3 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Muller1.67
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 7 of 12
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHolomek3wins
AwayMuller5wins
3 of 8 to a deciderMuller leads 5–3, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolomek50%2 of 4
AwayMuller75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holomek4Muller4n = 8split evenly
S2Holomek2Muller6n = 8Muller took 6 of 8
S3Holomek7Muller1n = 8Holomek took 7 of 8
S4Holomek2Muller4n = 6Muller took 4 of 6
S5Holomek1Muller2n = 3Muller took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricHolomekMullerH − MBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match38.637.4+1.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolomekMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 128 vs 66 / 14743%44.9%55 / 128 vs 66 / 147Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerHolomek 2.10/Muller 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holomek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJun 4 · 12:58T. Holomek—119781P. Muller—81111113
LJun 4 · 09:15T. Holomek—11611982P. Muller—511911113
LApr 23 · 11:15T. Holomek—981221P. Muller—111110113
WDec 23 · 17:51T. Holomek—1111113P. Muller—7740
LDec 23 · 16:00T. Holomek—7711101P. Muller—11113123
LOct 24 · 10:45T. Holomek—710111182P. Muller—111256113
WMay 2 · 10:00T. Holomek—1311103P. Muller—11850
WApr 24 · 10:00T. Holomek—1111111153P. Muller—111334132
T. Holomek10
WSep 10 · 11:30T. Holomek1.83111811143A. Skyba1.83117119122LSep 10 · 09:30T. Holomek2.2091060J. Vrnak1.611112113LAug 13 · 12:58D. Sabuka1.25911511113T. Holomek3.7511511782LAug 13 · 12:00T. Holomek2.206870D. Sabuka1.611111113LAug 13 · 10:30M. Holub1.401111123T. Holomek2.7587100LAug 13 · 10:00A. Akopyan2.5026911123T. Holomek1.5024116101LAug 6 · 08:38A. Akopyan2.38116115113T. Holomek1.5361181182LAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113LAug 6 · 06:30T. Holomek2.2510480M. Holub1.571211113WAug 6 · 05:30T. Holomek1.4071411113A. Akopyan2.751112761
P. Muller10
WSep 10 · 12:00P. Muller1.5312117113J. Vrnak2.381091151WSep 10 · 10:00A. Skyba1.57811731P. Muller2.2511911113LSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191LSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110LSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 14:00P. Muller1.671111113A. Akopyan2.103990LJun 28 · 13:00P. Muller2.6381070J. Jnr1.441112113LJun 28 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5711713113P. Muller2.253111131LJun 28 · 11:00M. Vydra1.30811511113P. Muller3.4011411732LJun 28 · 09:30M. Cmil1.4013911113P. Muller2.751111851
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