TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105656
Played Sep 10Finished
Patrik Muller
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210119711115––
Jan Vrnak
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:00 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Muller to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Muller above · Jan Vrnak below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 76 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Patrik Muller at 62.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Muller 4–2 Jan Vrnak Jan Vrnak has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:00What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Muller
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Muller
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Muller 1225 vs Vrnak 1150
Muller
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Muller 20% vs Vrnak 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Muller 20% vs Vrnak 10%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Muller -1 · Vrnak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Muller)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrnak form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMuller 1.53 / Vrnak 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Muller)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13105656
Muller1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 7 of 12
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Vrnak2.38
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 18 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMuller4wins
AwayVrnak2wins
Muller leads 4–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMuller100%4 of 4
AwayVrnakn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Muller4Vrnak2n = 6Muller took 4 of 6
S2Muller3Vrnak3n = 6split evenly
S3Muller3Vrnak3n = 6split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home233%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricMullerVrnakM − VBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match31.830.0+1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMullerVrnakBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 149 vs 93 / 21345%43.7%67 / 149 vs 93 / 213Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MullerMuller 1.53/Vrnak 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Muller · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJun 4 · 10:45P. Muller—1111113J. Vrnak—5760
WJul 8 · 16:40P. Muller—11411113J. Vrnak—911921
LJul 8 · 14:30P. Muller—81080J. Vrnak—1112113
WJun 16 · 09:30P. Muller—11129113J. Vrnak—9101171
WJun 3 · 13:00P. Muller—1111113J. Vrnak—9990
LJun 3 · 12:00P. Muller—3790J. Vrnak—1111113
P. Muller10
LSep 10 · 10:30T. Holomek2.1010101111113P. Muller1.6712127882WSep 10 · 10:00A. Skyba1.57811731P. Muller2.2511911113LSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191LSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110LSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 14:00P. Muller1.671111113A. Akopyan2.103990LJun 28 · 13:00P. Muller2.6381070J. Jnr1.441112113LJun 28 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5711713113P. Muller2.253111131LJun 28 · 11:00M. Vydra1.30811511113P. Muller3.4011411732LJun 28 · 09:30M. Cmil1.4013911113P. Muller2.751111851
J. Vrnak10
LSep 10 · 11:00A. Skyba1.4471111113J. Vrnak2.63116771WSep 10 · 09:30T. Holomek2.2091060J. Vrnak1.611112113LSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113LSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123LAug 8 · 20:33J. Vrnak3.3051290M. Vydra1.251114113LAug 8 · 19:30M. Vydra1.401111113J. Vrnak2.755920LAug 8 · 19:00J. Vrnak2.20711471D. Sabuka1.6111911103LAug 8 · 18:00J. Vrnak2.38416971M. Holub1.53111411113
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