TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105624
Played Sep 10Finished
Antonin Skyba
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116117117––
Jan Vrnak
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:01 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeAntonin Skyba to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAntonin Skyba above · Jan Vrnak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Antonin Skyba at 64.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Skyba 6–5 Jan Vrnak Jan Vrnak has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:01What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Skyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skyba 1231 vs Vrnak 1146
Skyba
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skyba 60% vs Vrnak 0%
Skyba
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skyba 50% vs Vrnak 10%
Skyba
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skyba -1 · Vrnak -5
Vrnak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Skyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrnak form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkyba 1.44 / Vrnak 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Skyba)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105624
Skyba1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 20 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it68% 15 of 22
Vrnak2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 18 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkyba5wins
AwayVrnak5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkyba100%5 of 5
AwayVrnak100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skyba5Vrnak5n = 10split evenly
S2Skyba9Vrnak1n = 10Skyba took 9 of 10
S3Skyba3Vrnak7n = 10Vrnak took 7 of 10
S4Skyba4Vrnak2n = 6Skyba took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkybaVrnakS − VBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.535.50.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkybaVrnakBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 238 vs 94 / 21539.9%43.7%95 / 238 vs 94 / 215Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaSkyba 1.44/Vrnak 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 07:30A. Skyba—11115113J. Vrnak—961171
WJul 30 · 08:48A. Skyba—1111113J. Vrnak—9890
WJul 30 · 07:30A. Skyba—11116113J. Vrnak—871181
LJun 22 · 07:30A. Skyba—8980J. Vrnak—1111113
WMay 28 · 07:00A. Skyba—1312113J. Vrnak—111040
LMay 21 · 07:30A. Skyba—9115111J. Vrnak—11511133
LMar 26 · 06:45A. Skyba—511241J. Vrnak—11911113
WJan 13 · 10:10A. Skyba—1111103J. Vrnak—7940
LJan 13 · 08:00A. Skyba—913101182J. Vrnak—1111125113
LSep 16 · 06:00A. Skyba—41281182J. Vrnak—1110119113
A. Skyba10
LSep 10 · 11:30T. Holomek1.83111811143A. Skyba1.83117119122LSep 10 · 10:00A. Skyba1.57811731P. Muller2.2511911113LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba2.50128714102M. Cmil1.5010111112123
J. Vrnak10
WSep 10 · 09:30T. Holomek2.2091060J. Vrnak1.611112113LSep 3 · 08:34M. Cmil1.50312711113J. Vrnak2.50111011562LSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113LSep 3 · 06:30J. Vrnak2.50911771M. Cmil1.5011211113LSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123LAug 8 · 20:33J. Vrnak3.3051290M. Vydra1.251114113LAug 8 · 19:30M. Vydra1.401111113J. Vrnak2.755920LAug 8 · 19:00J. Vrnak2.20711471D. Sabuka1.6111911103LAug 8 · 18:00J. Vrnak2.38416971M. Holub1.53111411113LAug 6 · 09:10M. Holub1.4471J. Vrnak2.6350
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