TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105917
Played Sep 10Finished
Antonin Skyba
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119711311––
Patrik Muller
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:16 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeAntonin Skyba to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAntonin Skyba above · Patrik Muller below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 71 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Antonin Skyba at 60.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Antonin Skyba 9–3 Patrik Muller Patrik Muller has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:16What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Skyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-3 in 12
Skyba
Wrong
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skyba 1231 vs Muller 1227
Skyba
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skyba 60% vs Muller 20%
Skyba
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skyba 50% vs Muller 20%
Skyba
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skyba -1 · Muller -3
Muller
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Skyba)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Muller form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkyba 1.57 / Muller 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Skyba)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13105917
Skyba1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 20 of 36
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it68% 15 of 22
Muller2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 17 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkyba7wins
AwayMuller3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkyba leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkyba80%4 of 5
AwayMuller40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skyba5Muller5n = 10split evenly
S2Skyba7Muller3n = 10Skyba took 7 of 10
S3Skyba4Muller6n = 10Muller took 6 of 10
S4Skyba6Muller3n = 9Skyba took 6 of 9
S5Skyba2Muller1n = 3Skyba took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkybaMullerS − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.338.7+1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkybaMullerBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 238 vs 66 / 14739.9%44.9%95 / 238 vs 66 / 147Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaSkyba 1.57/Muller 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Muller won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 13 · 12:29A. Skyba—912117113P. Muller—111081162
WApr 13 · 10:00A. Skyba—11158113P. Muller—9131181
WApr 6 · 12:29A. Skyba—1011118113P. Muller—12581182
LApr 6 · 11:30A. Skyba—7680P. Muller—1111113
WFeb 16 · 13:32A. Skyba—11119113P. Muller—951191
LFeb 16 · 12:00A. Skyba—111071262P. Muller—9121110113
WFeb 2 · 15:00A. Skyba—51111103P. Muller—119771
WJan 5 · 16:45A. Skyba—11115113P. Muller—791171
LSep 24 · 10:30A. Skyba—591161P. Muller—11116113
WMay 13 · 10:30A. Skyba—11119113P. Muller—741171
A. Skyba10
LSep 10 · 11:30T. Holomek1.83111811143A. Skyba1.83117119122WSep 10 · 11:00A. Skyba1.4471111113J. Vrnak2.63116771LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba2.50128714102M. Cmil1.5010111112123
P. Muller10
LSep 10 · 10:30T. Holomek2.1010101111113P. Muller1.6712127882LSep 6 · 16:34A. Akopyan2.1012136113P. Muller1.6710111191LSep 6 · 15:30V. Coubal1.611113133P. Muller2.20811110LSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 14:00P. Muller1.671111113A. Akopyan2.103990LJun 28 · 13:00P. Muller2.6381070J. Jnr1.441112113LJun 28 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5711713113P. Muller2.253111131LJun 28 · 11:00M. Vydra1.30811511113P. Muller3.4011411732LJun 28 · 09:30M. Cmil1.4013911113P. Muller2.751111851LJun 26 · 12:58P. Muller2.384680J. Krejcik1.531111113
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