TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105626
Played Sep 10Finished
Tomas Holomek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1111178111191412
Antonin Skyba
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:00 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Holomek to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Holomek above · Antonin Skyba below
Set 1 · 1-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 95 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Tomas Holomek at 55.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Holomek 7–2 Antonin Skyba Antonin Skyba has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:00What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Skyba
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Holomek
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holomek 1152 vs Skyba 1218
Skyba
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holomek 20% vs Skyba 60%
Skyba
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holomek 20% vs Skyba 40%
Skyba
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holomek +1 · Skyba -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holomek) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holomek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolomek 1.83 / Skyba 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holomek)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13105626
Holomek1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Skyba1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeHolomek7wins
AwaySkyba2wins
3 of 9 to a deciderHolomek leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolomek80%4 of 5
AwaySkyba25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holomek5Skyba4n = 9Holomek took 5 of 9
S2Holomek2Skyba7n = 9Skyba took 7 of 9
S3Holomek8Skyba1n = 9Holomek took 8 of 9
S4Holomek7Skyba2n = 9Holomek took 7 of 9
S5Holomek2Skyba1n = 3Holomek took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home556%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricHolomekSkybaH − SBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match43.139.0+4.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolomekSkybaBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 122 vs 95 / 23543.4%40.4%53 / 122 vs 95 / 235Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolomekHolomek 1.83/Skyba 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holomek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holomek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJun 25 · 10:45T. Holomek—31111113A. Skyba—115941
LJun 11 · 11:30T. Holomek—159115132A. Skyba—1311511153
WFeb 26 · 14:03T. Holomek—14711113A. Skyba—1211891
WFeb 26 · 13:00T. Holomek—11812133A. Skyba—71110121
WJan 29 · 10:30T. Holomek—11711113A. Skyba—811571
WJan 22 · 13:00T. Holomek—481111113A. Skyba—11115852
LJul 3 · 11:30T. Holomek—1091151A. Skyba—12112113
WMar 6 · 11:00T. Holomek—11118123A. Skyba—9511101
WFeb 26 · 12:30T. Holomek—781111133A. Skyba—111157112
T. Holomek10
WSep 10 · 10:30T. Holomek2.1010101111113P. Muller1.6712127882LSep 10 · 09:30T. Holomek2.2091060J. Vrnak1.611112113LAug 13 · 12:58D. Sabuka1.25911511113T. Holomek3.7511511782LAug 13 · 12:00T. Holomek2.206870D. Sabuka1.611111113LAug 13 · 10:30M. Holub1.401111123T. Holomek2.7587100LAug 13 · 10:00A. Akopyan2.5026911123T. Holomek1.5024116101LAug 6 · 08:38A. Akopyan2.38116115113T. Holomek1.5361181182LAug 6 · 07:30T. Holomek1.737960J. Vrnak2.001111113LAug 6 · 06:30T. Holomek2.2510480M. Holub1.571211113WAug 6 · 05:30T. Holomek1.4071411113A. Akopyan2.751112761
A. Skyba10
WSep 10 · 11:00A. Skyba1.4471111113J. Vrnak2.63116771LSep 10 · 10:00A. Skyba1.57811731P. Muller2.2511911113LSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 07:30J. Vrnak2.20961171A. Skyba1.6111115113WSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 06:00A. Skyba2.381411611113M. Cmil1.5316811972LSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940WSep 1 · 07:30M. Cervenka3.255660A. Skyba1.331111113LSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 06:00A. Skyba2.50128714102M. Cmil1.5010111112123
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