TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105655
Played Sep 10Finished
Martin Kocvara
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119112116––––
Jakub Senk
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:05 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Kocvara to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Kocvara above · Jakub Senk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 50 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Martin Kocvara at 60.5%
50 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kocvara 3–1 Jakub Senk Jakub Senk has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kocvara
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kocvara
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocvara 1734 vs Senk 1610
Kocvara
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocvara 40% vs Senk 60%
Senk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocvara 60% vs Senk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocvara +1 · Senk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kocvara)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocvara 1.61 / Senk 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Kocvara)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13105655
Kocvara1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 29 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 13 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Senk2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 28 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back44% 15 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back28% 5 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKocvara3wins
AwaySenk1wins
Kocvara leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocvara2Senk2n = 4split evenly
S2Kocvara3Senk1n = 4Kocvara took 3 of 4
S3Kocvara4Senk0n = 4Kocvara took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKocvaraSenkK − SBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match34.228.2+6.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocvaraSenkBasisWin rate · lifetime81 / 140 vs 152 / 29357.9%51.9%81 / 140 vs 152 / 293Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraKocvara 1.61/Senk 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kocvara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 10 · 07:30M. Kocvara—1111113J. Senk—9260
LAug 23 · 10:45M. Kocvara—781131J. Senk—11116113
WJul 14 · 12:48M. Kocvara—1113113J. Senk—51180
WJul 14 · 11:45M. Kocvara—71111113J. Senk—119671
M. Kocvara10
WSep 10 · 09:03R. Pisa1.8311713101M. Kocvara1.8341115123WSep 10 · 06:30M. Kocvara1.80111110113L. Veigl1.91881291LSep 10 · 05:30M. Kocvara1.8311891192R. Pisa1.83811119113WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742
J. Senk10
LSep 10 · 08:33L. Veigl1.6714117113J. Senk2.101291191LSep 10 · 07:00J. Senk1.916101415122R. Pisa1.8011121213143LSep 10 · 06:00J. Senk2.1079100L. Veigl1.671111123WSep 9 · 16:54J. Senk1.831111123M. Myler1.8384100WSep 9 · 15:45M. Myler1.8312163952J. Senk1.8310141111113WSep 9 · 14:45S. Rejent1.67711991J. Senk2.1011611113WSep 9 · 13:15O. Mezera2.0091271192J. Senk1.731110115113WSep 8 · 16:49J. Senk1.8011711113O. Mezera1.91711281LSep 8 · 15:45V. Grubr1.7351211113J. Senk2.001110791WSep 8 · 14:45S. Rejent1.6791112852J. Senk2.101181011113
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