TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105566
Played Sep 10Finished
Martin Kocvara
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118811911119911
Radovan Pisa
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Kocvara to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Kocvara above · Radovan Pisa below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Martin Kocvara at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Martin Kocvara 9–4 Radovan Pisa Radovan Pisa has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pisa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Kocvara
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocvara 1711 vs Pisa 1685
Kocvara
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocvara 40% vs Pisa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocvara 60% vs Pisa 40%
Kocvara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocvara +1 · Pisa -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kocvara)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pisa form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocvara 1.83 / Pisa 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kocvara)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13105566
Kocvara1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Pisa1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocvara7wins
AwayPisa3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKocvara leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocvara83.3%5 of 6
AwayPisa50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocvara6Pisa4n = 10Kocvara took 6 of 10
S2Kocvara5Pisa5n = 10split evenly
S3Kocvara4Pisa6n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S4Kocvara5Pisa4n = 9Kocvara took 5 of 9
S5Kocvara3Pisa0n = 3Kocvara took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocvaraPisaK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.939.5−1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocvaraPisaBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 136 vs 383 / 79157.4%48.4%78 / 136 vs 383 / 791Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraKocvara 1.83/Pisa 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pisa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 11:45M. Kocvara—411115113R. Pisa—11881182
LAug 12 · 06:15M. Kocvara—1161041R. Pisa—81112113
LAug 10 · 09:45M. Kocvara—57100R. Pisa—1111123
WAug 5 · 12:19M. Kocvara—11117123R. Pisa—8811101
LAug 5 · 11:15M. Kocvara—321171R. Pisa—11118113
WJul 26 · 12:49M. Kocvara—1161110113R. Pisa—91191282
WJul 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara—111111113R. Pisa—641381
WJul 25 · 10:15M. Kocvara—11128113R. Pisa—4101181
WJul 14 · 10:45M. Kocvara—11311113R. Pisa—811981
WJul 12 · 18:45M. Kocvara—811811113R. Pisa—11911962
M. Kocvara10
WSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:45J. Sr1.40111112113M. Kocvara2.75761481LSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480WSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 4 · 12:59L. Adam2.201111113M. Kocvara1.617480WSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov1.80991181M. Kocvara1.9111113113WSep 4 · 11:00M. Kocvara1.67115211113L. Adam2.1031111742WSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113LSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113
R. Pisa10
LSep 8 · 12:29M. Makara1.91111185123R. Pisa1.80891111102WSep 8 · 11:30R. Pisa1.67111111123M. Makara2.107713101LSep 8 · 10:30R. Pisa1.6197111182T. Liska2.20111184113LSep 8 · 09:30R. Pisa2.2081111932L. Veigl1.61117311113WSep 7 · 12:54R. Pisa1.801113113A. Radkovsky1.9181190LSep 7 · 11:45M. Vyskocil1.671081111123R. Pisa2.10121167102WSep 7 · 10:45L. Adam1.501061161R. Pisa2.5012119113WSep 7 · 09:15A. Radkovsky1.9167111352R. Pisa1.801111711113LSep 3 · 20:14R. Pisa2.008250A. Snr1.731111113LSep 3 · 19:45T. Liska2.201111113R. Pisa1.617990
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