TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100626
Played Sep 9Finished
Ondrej Mezera
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9111210711115911
Jakub Senk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Senk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Jakub Senk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Senk at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 15–16 Jakub Senk Ondrej Mezera has won 15 of their 31 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:18What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Senk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-16 in 31
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1606 vs Senk 1570
Mezera
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 60% vs Senk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 40% vs Senk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera -1 · Senk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Senk)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.00 / Senk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Senk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13100626
Mezera2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 117 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back32% 47 of 148
Down 0–2, comes back17% 13 of 76
Senk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 51 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it73% 37 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMezera5wins
AwaySenk5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezera80%4 of 5
AwaySenk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera5Senk5n = 10split evenly
S2Mezera5Senk5n = 10split evenly
S3Mezera2Senk8n = 10Senk took 8 of 10
S4Mezera5Senk3n = 8Mezera took 5 of 8
S5Mezera4Senk2n = 6Mezera took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMezeraSenkM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.642.4−0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraSenkBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 819 vs 150 / 28950.2%51.9%411 / 819 vs 150 / 289Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.839.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SenkMezera 2.00/Senk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Senk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Senk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 16:49O. Mezera—711281J. Senk—11711113
LSep 8 · 13:15O. Mezera—71110101J. Senk—11312123
WSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera—115811113J. Senk—41111862
LAug 23 · 11:15O. Mezera—19760J. Senk—2111113
WAug 22 · 11:15O. Mezera—1111113J. Senk—7670
WAug 19 · 14:15O. Mezera—691112113J. Senk—111181062
LJul 22 · 16:48O. Mezera—1510101192J. Senk—1312123113
WJul 22 · 13:15O. Mezera—1191111123J. Senk—711135102
WJun 29 · 05:15O. Mezera—111544113J. Senk—713111192
LJun 24 · 06:15O. Mezera—61171112J. Senk—119117113
O. Mezera10
LSep 8 · 16:49J. Senk1.8011711113O. Mezera1.91711281WSep 8 · 15:15O. Mezera2.38911911113S. Rejent1.5311911962WSep 8 · 14:15O. Mezera2.20117118113V. Grubr1.6171161182LSep 8 · 13:15O. Mezera2.0071110101J. Senk1.7311312123WSep 7 · 16:19S. Rejent1.5071590O. Mezera2.501117113WSep 7 · 15:15O. Mezera1.831110116113M. Myler1.8391291182LSep 7 · 14:15O. Mezera2.257490S. Rejent1.571111113LSep 7 · 13:15O. Mezera2.38811611102M. Makara1.53114115123LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113
J. Senk10
WSep 8 · 16:49J. Senk1.8011711113O. Mezera1.91711281LSep 8 · 15:45V. Grubr1.7351211113J. Senk2.001110791WSep 8 · 14:45S. Rejent1.6791112852J. Senk2.101181011113WSep 8 · 13:15O. Mezera2.0071110101J. Senk1.7311312123LSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113LSep 5 · 19:45J. Senk2.755820J. Sr1.401111113LSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890LSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 4 · 08:19J. Senk2.107960P. Fencl1.671111113LSep 4 · 07:15P. Fencl1.7311811113J. Senk2.00911781
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