Jaroslav Schwan vs Samuel Byrtus 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #13104157

Played Sep 9Finished

Jaroslav Schwan

Home

1.61

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Won last 2

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

114911911611––

Samuel Byrtus

Away

2.20

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%

Graded at full time

Jaroslav Schwan to win

54.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJaroslav Schwan above · Samuel Byrtus below

Set 1 · 11-4

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 6-11

Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Schwan at 54.9%

72 points played in total.

H2H Jaroslav Schwan 7–3 Samuel Byrtus Samuel Byrtus has won 3 of their 10 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

Same-day rematch · 3h before this match

Byrtus beat Schwan 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

The pickContradict

Sealed 13:04

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.61 (58%)

Schwan

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

7-3 in 10

Schwan

Wrong

gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Schwan 1540 vs Byrtus 1581

Byrtus

Correct

both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Schwan 40% vs Byrtus 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Schwan 40% vs Byrtus 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Schwan +2 · Byrtus -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.

Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Schwan)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Schwan form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSchwan 1.61 / Byrtus 2.20

Signal prob.55% / 45%

Edge (Byrtus)+2.8pp

Czech Liga Pro · #13104157

Schwan1.61

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

20%takes the first set · 2 of 10

As favourite61% won 45 of 74

Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22

Up 1–0, closes it78% 31 of 40

Byrtus2.20

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

0%takes the first set · 0 of 10

As underdog46% won 74 of 160

Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 89

Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSchwan7wins

AwayByrtus3wins

1 of 10 to a deciderSchwan leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSchwan71.4%5 of 7

AwayByrtus33.3%1 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Schwan7Byrtus3n = 10Schwan took 7 of 10

S2Schwan8Byrtus2n = 10Schwan took 8 of 10

S3Schwan7Byrtus3n = 10Schwan took 7 of 10

S4Schwan3Byrtus2n = 5Schwan took 3 of 5

Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home550%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricSchwanByrtusS − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.528.5+8.0per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSchwanByrtusBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 265 vs 297 / 57946.8%51.3%124 / 265 vs 297 / 579Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Byrtus

Schwan 1.61/Byrtus 2.20

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54.9%

Schwan · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Byrtus won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LSep 9 · 10:30J. Schwan—1161211102S. Byrtus—511148123

LAug 17 · 18:00J. Schwan—129751S. Byrtus—101111113

WJul 22 · 11:00J. Schwan—1111113S. Byrtus—9440

WMay 29 · 09:30J. Schwan—71111113S. Byrtus—119141

WMay 29 · 06:00J. Schwan—1411113S. Byrtus—12780

WMay 27 · 06:00J. Schwan—1111113S. Byrtus—5760

WMay 21 · 12:30J. Schwan—1111113S. Byrtus—4770

WMay 15 · 17:30J. Schwan—91111113S. Byrtus—113691

LMay 15 · 14:30J. Schwan—5115111S. Byrtus—11311133

WMay 14 · 19:00J. Schwan—1111113S. Byrtus—6950

J. Schwan10

WSep 9 · 12:30S. Kysely1.731181151J. Schwan2.0071113113 WSep 9 · 11:30J. Schwan1.91511116123R. Skacelik1.80119311102 LSep 9 · 10:30S. Byrtus2.38511148123J. Schwan1.531161211102 LSep 6 · 16:59J. Levicky3.401312113J. Schwan1.30111080 LSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik1.831311113J. Schwan1.8311730 LSep 6 · 15:00D. Langer1.9114511113J. Schwan1.801211561 LSep 6 · 14:30J. Schwan1.2811870J. Levicky3.501311113 LSep 2 · 17:30L. Martinak1.80119114113J. Schwan1.8081151192 WSep 2 · 16:30J. Schwan1.361111113J. Stoch3.007840 WSep 2 · 15:00J. Schwan1.8381111133R. Skacelik1.831195111

S. Byrtus10

LSep 9 · 12:00R. Skacelik1.531111113S. Byrtus2.385490 WSep 9 · 11:00S. Kysely1.6111541292S. Byrtus2.206111110113 WSep 9 · 10:30S. Byrtus2.38511148123J. Schwan1.531161211102 LSep 2 · 16:59D. Heczko1.83118711113S. Byrtus1.8381111572 LSep 2 · 16:00D. Heczko1.911211113S. Byrtus1.8010850 LSep 2 · 15:00A. Walek2.0011911123S. Byrtus1.738116101 LSep 2 · 14:30S. Byrtus1.73211661D. Langer2.0011911113 WSep 1 · 09:30J. Cabak1.80111271672S. Byrtus1.915101118113 WSep 1 · 08:00L. Martinak1.83113101172S. Byrtus1.83711126113 LSep 1 · 07:00J. Cabak1.8311117113S. Byrtus1.83651171

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