TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13059554
Played Sep 2Finished
Adrian Walek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1189111161210––
Samuel Byrtus
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSamuel Byrtus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdrian Walek above · Samuel Byrtus below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Samuel Byrtus at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Walek 18–21 Samuel Byrtus Adrian Walek has won 18 of their 39 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:59What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Byrtus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-21 in 39
Byrtus
Wrong
gap of 3 in 39, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Walek 1664 vs Byrtus 1640
Walek
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Walek 80% vs Byrtus 60%
Walek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Walek 70% vs Byrtus 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Walek +3 · Byrtus -1
Walek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Byrtus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Walek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWalek 2.00 / Byrtus 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Byrtus)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13059554
Walek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 89 of 178
Down 0–1, comes back34% 30 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back18% 7 of 40
Byrtus1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 92 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it91% 41 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it72% 64 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWalek6wins
AwayByrtus4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderWalek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWalek66.7%4 of 6
AwayByrtus50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Walek6Byrtus4n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S2Walek4Byrtus6n = 10Byrtus took 6 of 10
S3Walek6Byrtus4n = 10Walek took 6 of 10
S4Walek6Byrtus3n = 9Walek took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWalekByrtusW − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.238.3+2.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWalekByrtusBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 436 vs 303 / 58651.2%51.7%223 / 436 vs 303 / 586Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ByrtusWalek 2.00/Byrtus 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Byrtus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Walek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 15:00A. Walek—11911123S. Byrtus—8116101
WAug 30 · 20:00A. Walek—1191011113S. Byrtus—71112792
LAug 27 · 07:30A. Walek—1167101S. Byrtus—61111123
WAug 26 · 13:30A. Walek—61111113S. Byrtus—115691
LAug 26 · 11:30A. Walek—119811102S. Byrtus—811116123
LAug 25 · 06:30A. Walek—1381171S. Byrtus—15115113
WAug 23 · 12:59A. Walek—1112113S. Byrtus—61090
LAug 23 · 11:00A. Walek—771191S. Byrtus—11117113
WAug 19 · 07:30A. Walek—12119113S. Byrtus—1091171
WAug 14 · 11:30A. Walek—91111143S. Byrtus—1188121
A. Walek10
WSep 6 · 08:59L. Martinak1.5011117452A. Walek2.50661111113LSep 6 · 08:30L. Martinak1.731111113A. Walek2.006770LSep 6 · 07:30A. Walek3.0085130T. Kypr1.361111153LSep 6 · 06:30M. Bereiter1.671317116113A. Walek2.10151571172LSep 5 · 13:28A. Walek1.8521180M. Bereiter1.801113113LSep 5 · 12:30D. Langer1.91791111113A. Walek1.8011116972WSep 5 · 11:30A. Walek1.801112113M. Bereiter1.9181070WSep 5 · 10:30D. Heczko1.61871151A. Walek2.2011117113WSep 5 · 09:00A. Walek1.959121112113L. Martinak1.75111091442LSep 5 · 08:30A. Walek2.38118591J. Snr1.5391111113
S. Byrtus10
LSep 2 · 16:59D. Heczko1.83118711113S. Byrtus1.8381111572LSep 2 · 16:00D. Heczko1.911211113S. Byrtus1.8010850LSep 2 · 14:30S. Byrtus1.73211661D. Langer2.0011911113WSep 1 · 09:30J. Cabak1.80111271672S. Byrtus1.915101118113WSep 1 · 08:00L. Martinak1.83113101172S. Byrtus1.83711126113LSep 1 · 07:00J. Cabak1.8311117113S. Byrtus1.83651171WSep 1 · 06:30S. Byrtus2.001111113J. Snr1.738770WAug 31 · 09:07D. Langer2.254980S. Byrtus1.571111113LAug 31 · 08:00S. Byrtus1.91814110D. Heczko1.801116133LAug 31 · 07:30D. Machander2.2511119113S. Byrtus1.57591121
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