TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13099109
Played Sep 9Finished
Jaroslav Schwan
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111191136111210
Richard Skacelik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:36 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeRichard Skacelik to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Schwan above · Richard Skacelik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 89 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Richard Skacelik at 54.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Schwan 20–17 Richard Skacelik Richard Skacelik has won 17 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:36What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skacelik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-17 in 37
Schwan
Correct
gap of 3 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Schwan 1511 vs Skacelik 1630
Skacelik
Wrong
both rated, 118 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Schwan 0% vs Skacelik 60%
Skacelik
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Schwan 20% vs Skacelik 40%
Skacelik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Schwan -5 · Skacelik -1
Schwan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skacelik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schwan form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSchwan 1.91 / Skacelik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skacelik)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13099109
Schwan1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 23 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back16% 4 of 25
Skacelik1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 68 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it68% 49 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSchwan5wins
AwaySkacelik5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSchwan100%4 of 4
AwaySkacelik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Schwan4Skacelik6n = 10Skacelik took 6 of 10
S2Schwan5Skacelik5n = 10split evenly
S3Schwan4Skacelik6n = 10Skacelik took 6 of 10
S4Schwan4Skacelik3n = 7Schwan took 4 of 7
S5Schwan3Skacelik2n = 5Schwan took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSchwanSkacelikSchwan − SkacelikBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.840.4−2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSchwanSkacelikBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 263 vs 206 / 43446.4%47.5%122 / 263 vs 206 / 434Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkacelikSchwan 1.91/Skacelik 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Skacelik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Schwan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 16:00J. Schwan—11730R. Skacelik—1311113
WSep 2 · 15:00J. Schwan—81111133R. Skacelik—1195111
LJun 25 · 12:58J. Schwan—81171522R. Skacelik—1181113113
WJun 25 · 10:00J. Schwan—1111115113R. Skacelik—87131182
WMay 21 · 13:30J. Schwan—1111113R. Skacelik—9950
WMay 21 · 11:00J. Schwan—111135113R. Skacelik—94111182
LMay 20 · 07:00J. Schwan—56111182R. Skacelik—111167113
LMay 4 · 07:00J. Schwan—9590R. Skacelik—1111113
LMay 1 · 18:30J. Schwan—971181R. Skacelik—11115113
WApr 30 · 09:00J. Schwan—1151012113R. Skacelik—711121092
J. Schwan10
WSep 9 · 12:30S. Kysely1.731181151J. Schwan2.0071113113LSep 9 · 10:30S. Byrtus2.38511148123J. Schwan1.531161211102LSep 6 · 16:59J. Levicky3.401312113J. Schwan1.30111080LSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik1.831311113J. Schwan1.8311730LSep 6 · 15:00D. Langer1.9114511113J. Schwan1.801211561LSep 6 · 14:30J. Schwan1.2811870J. Levicky3.501311113LSep 2 · 17:30L. Martinak1.80119114113J. Schwan1.8081151192WSep 2 · 16:30J. Schwan1.361111113J. Stoch3.007840WSep 2 · 15:00J. Schwan1.8381111133R. Skacelik1.831195111LSep 2 · 14:00L. Martinak1.8341111113J. Schwan1.83116691
R. Skacelik10
WSep 9 · 12:00R. Skacelik1.531111113S. Byrtus2.385490LSep 9 · 10:00R. Skacelik1.737890S. Kysely2.001111113WSep 6 · 17:29D. Langer1.8016711972R. Skacelik1.911411911113WSep 6 · 16:00R. Skacelik1.831311113J. Schwan1.8311730WSep 6 · 15:30J. Levicky2.25115861R. Skacelik1.5761111113LSep 6 · 14:00R. Skacelik1.6741171162D. Langer2.10115116113WSep 2 · 17:00J. Stoch1.6711135892R. Skacelik2.104111111113LSep 2 · 16:00L. Martinak2.0011111113R. Skacelik1.73911881LSep 2 · 15:00J. Schwan1.8381111133R. Skacelik1.831195111LSep 2 · 14:30R. Skacelik1.915111091J. Stoch1.8011512113
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