TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13066778
Played Sep 3Finished
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119611611116811
Gregory Kuzmenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:58 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Gregory Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 90 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 60.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 20–11 Gregory Kuzmenko Gregory Kuzmenko has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:58What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-11 in 31
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1743 vs Kuzmenko 1776
Kuzmenko
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 40% vs Kuzmenko 80%
Kuzmenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Kuzmenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi +1 · Kuzmenko +3
Kuzmenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Chaikovskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 1.57 / Kuzmenko 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13066778
Chaikovskyi1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 87 of 131
Up 2–0, closes it88% 35 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 60 of 74
Kuzmenko2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 58 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back24% 18 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi6wins
AwayKuzmenko4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChaikovskyi leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyi75%3 of 4
AwayKuzmenko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi4Kuzmenko6n = 10Kuzmenko took 6 of 10
S2Chaikovskyi4Kuzmenko6n = 10Kuzmenko took 6 of 10
S3Chaikovskyi6Kuzmenko4n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Chaikovskyi7Kuzmenko3n = 10Chaikovskyi took 7 of 10
S5Chaikovskyi3Kuzmenko2n = 5Chaikovskyi took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiKuzmenkoC − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match44.641.3+3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 733 vs 282 / 57050.9%49.5%373 / 733 vs 282 / 570Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiChaikovskyi 1.57/Kuzmenko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.1%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kuzmenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi—11661182G. Kuzmenko—911116113
LSep 2 · 16:35B. Chaikovskyi—911101172G. Kuzmenko—116123113
WAug 29 · 20:15B. Chaikovskyi—119119113G. Kuzmenko—51181182
LAug 27 · 11:05B. Chaikovskyi—8111291G. Kuzmenko—111310113
LAug 22 · 23:15B. Chaikovskyi—911691G. Kuzmenko—11711113
WJul 17 · 04:35B. Chaikovskyi—11711113G. Kuzmenko—811591
WJul 16 · 18:35B. Chaikovskyi—11913173G. Kuzmenko—91111151
WJul 16 · 02:30B. Chaikovskyi—781112113G. Kuzmenko—111161032
WJul 10 · 08:05B. Chaikovskyi—91111113G. Kuzmenko—113761
WJun 30 · 21:00B. Chaikovskyi—711911113G. Kuzmenko—11911972
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 6 · 02:45B. Chaikovskyi1.831191110123V. Slozka1.83811712102WSep 6 · 24:45V. Zharskiy1.5311117642B. Chaikovskyi2.38461111113WSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 22:45R. Konkulovskyi1.61751141B. Chaikovskyi2.2011116113WSep 5 · 21:15B. Chaikovskyi1.4411811133V. Krokhmal2.638118111WSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992WSep 3 · 07:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501111113V. Krokhmal2.504740LSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53411511102O. Pohonov2.38118115123LSep 3 · 04:35B. Chaikovskyi2.0011640I. Sukovatyi1.731311113WSep 2 · 18:05B. Chaikovskyi2.20313311113S. Maksymiv1.61111111782
G. Kuzmenko10
WSep 3 · 11:05G. Kuzmenko2.251111113I. Sukovatyi1.579870WSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031WSep 3 · 07:05S. Maksymiv1.361187101G. Kuzmenko3.0061111123WSep 3 · 05:35G. Kuzmenko1.831111113V. Krokhmal1.835520LSep 2 · 18:35G. Kuzmenko2.50931151I. Sukovatyi1.5011113113WSep 2 · 16:35B. Chaikovskyi1.53911101172G. Kuzmenko2.38116123113WSep 2 · 15:35G. Kuzmenko1.571111113O. Pohonov2.257670LSep 2 · 14:35S. Maksymiv1.3641111113G. Kuzmenko3.00113641WSep 2 · 13:05G. Kuzmenko1.8351111223V. Krokhmal1.831188201LAug 30 · 24:45O. Pohonov2.7511811113G. Kuzmenko1.40811981
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