TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13066649
Played Sep 3Finished
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
4111185111151012
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:18 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 88 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 61.6%
88 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 32–23 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 23 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-23 in 55
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
gap of 9 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1744 vs Pohonov 1721
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Pohonov 40%
Chaikovskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Pohonov 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi -1 · Pohonov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Chaikovskyi)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 1.53 / Pohonov 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13066649
Chaikovskyi1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 88 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 61 of 75
Pohonov2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi8wins
AwayPohonov2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChaikovskyi leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyi88.9%8 of 9
AwayPohonovn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi9Pohonov1n = 10Chaikovskyi took 9 of 10
S2Chaikovskyi8Pohonov2n = 10Chaikovskyi took 8 of 10
S3Chaikovskyi6Pohonov4n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Chaikovskyi4Pohonov2n = 6Chaikovskyi took 4 of 6
S5Chaikovskyi1Pohonov2n = 3Pohonov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiPohonovC − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.834.6+5.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime374 / 734 vs 255 / 49351%51.7%374 / 734 vs 255 / 493Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiChaikovskyi 1.53/Pohonov 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pohonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi—411511102O. Pohonov—118115123
WSep 2 · 13:35B. Chaikovskyi—1111113O. Pohonov—6790
LSep 1 · 21:30B. Chaikovskyi—11812792O. Pohonov—9111011113
WAug 29 · 21:15B. Chaikovskyi—111196113O. Pohonov—89111192
WAug 27 · 10:05B. Chaikovskyi—1111113O. Pohonov—7950
WAug 19 · 17:35B. Chaikovskyi—12411113O. Pohonov—1011791
WJul 29 · 16:05B. Chaikovskyi—1112123O. Pohonov—610100
WJul 28 · 23:30B. Chaikovskyi—1111133O. Pohonov—96110
WJul 23 · 06:35B. Chaikovskyi—12119113O. Pohonov—1081161
WJul 22 · 14:05B. Chaikovskyi—111211113O. Pohonov—2101371
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 6 · 02:45B. Chaikovskyi1.831191110123V. Slozka1.83811712102WSep 6 · 24:45V. Zharskiy1.5311117642B. Chaikovskyi2.38461111113WSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 22:45R. Konkulovskyi1.61751141B. Chaikovskyi2.2011116113WSep 5 · 21:15B. Chaikovskyi1.4411811133V. Krokhmal2.638118111WSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992LSep 3 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661182G. Kuzmenko2.25911116113WSep 3 · 07:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501111113V. Krokhmal2.504740LSep 3 · 04:35B. Chaikovskyi2.0011640I. Sukovatyi1.731311113WSep 2 · 18:05B. Chaikovskyi2.20313311113S. Maksymiv1.61111111782
O. Pohonov10
WSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.731510571V. Slozka2.00131211113LSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 21:45V. Zharskiy1.6711241192O. Pohonov2.10611116113WSep 5 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2051790O. Pohonov1.611119113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.9111115123O. Pohonov1.804511101WSep 3 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.441111113I. Sukovatyi2.634530LSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031LSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191WSep 2 · 19:05V. Krokhmal1.83871291O. Pohonov1.83111110113
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