TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079235
Played Sep 5Finished
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5115111311114119
Oleksandr Pohonov
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeBohdan Chaikovskyi to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Oleksandr Pohonov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 91 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Bohdan Chaikovskyi at 61.6%
91 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 32–23 Oleksandr Pohonov Oleksandr Pohonov has won 23 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chaikovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-23 in 55
Chaikovskyi
Correct
gap of 9 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1761 vs Pohonov 1752
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 80% vs Pohonov 60%
Chaikovskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Pohonov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi +3 · Pohonov +2
Chaikovskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Chaikovskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pohonov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 1.53 / Pohonov 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Chaikovskyi)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13079235
Chaikovskyi1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 88 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it81% 61 of 75
Pohonov2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi8wins
AwayPohonov2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChaikovskyi leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyi88.9%8 of 9
AwayPohonovn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi9Pohonov1n = 10Chaikovskyi took 9 of 10
S2Chaikovskyi8Pohonov2n = 10Chaikovskyi took 8 of 10
S3Chaikovskyi6Pohonov4n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Chaikovskyi4Pohonov2n = 6Chaikovskyi took 4 of 6
S5Chaikovskyi1Pohonov2n = 3Pohonov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiPohonovC − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match39.834.6+5.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiPohonovBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 736 vs 257 / 49551.1%51.9%376 / 736 vs 257 / 495Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChaikovskyiChaikovskyi 1.53/Pohonov 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Chaikovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi—411511102O. Pohonov—118115123
WSep 2 · 13:35B. Chaikovskyi—1111113O. Pohonov—6790
LSep 1 · 21:30B. Chaikovskyi—11812792O. Pohonov—9111011113
WAug 29 · 21:15B. Chaikovskyi—111196113O. Pohonov—89111192
WAug 27 · 10:05B. Chaikovskyi—1111113O. Pohonov—7950
WAug 19 · 17:35B. Chaikovskyi—12411113O. Pohonov—1011791
WJul 29 · 16:05B. Chaikovskyi—1112123O. Pohonov—610100
WJul 28 · 23:30B. Chaikovskyi—1111133O. Pohonov—96110
WJul 23 · 06:35B. Chaikovskyi—12119113O. Pohonov—1081161
WJul 22 · 14:05B. Chaikovskyi—111211113O. Pohonov—2101371
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 6 · 02:45B. Chaikovskyi1.831191110123V. Slozka1.83811712102WSep 6 · 24:45V. Zharskiy1.5311117642B. Chaikovskyi2.38461111113WSep 5 · 22:45R. Konkulovskyi1.61751141B. Chaikovskyi2.2011116113WSep 5 · 21:15B. Chaikovskyi1.4411811133V. Krokhmal2.638118111WSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992LSep 3 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661182G. Kuzmenko2.25911116113WSep 3 · 07:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501111113V. Krokhmal2.504740LSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53411511102O. Pohonov2.38118115123LSep 3 · 04:35B. Chaikovskyi2.0011640I. Sukovatyi1.731311113WSep 2 · 18:05B. Chaikovskyi2.20313311113S. Maksymiv1.61111111782
O. Pohonov10
WSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.731510571V. Slozka2.00131211113WSep 5 · 21:45V. Zharskiy1.6711241192O. Pohonov2.10611116113WSep 5 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2051790O. Pohonov1.611119113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.9111115123O. Pohonov1.804511101WSep 3 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.441111113I. Sukovatyi2.634530LSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031WSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53411511102O. Pohonov2.38118115123LSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191WSep 2 · 19:05V. Krokhmal1.83871291O. Pohonov1.83111110113
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