TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061332
Played Sep 2Finished
Bohdan Chaikovskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111311311117118
Serhii Maksymiv
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:33 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maksymiv to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingBohdan Chaikovskyi above · Serhii Maksymiv below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 89 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Serhii Maksymiv at 59.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H Bohdan Chaikovskyi 34–46 Serhii Maksymiv Bohdan Chaikovskyi has won 34 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:33What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Maksymiv
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-46 in 80
Maksymiv
Wrong
gap of 12 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chaikovskyi 1771 vs Maksymiv 1721
Chaikovskyi
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Maksymiv 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chaikovskyi 60% vs Maksymiv 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chaikovskyi -1 · Maksymiv -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Maksymiv) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chaikovskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChaikovskyi 2.20 / Maksymiv 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Maksymiv)-1.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13061332
Chaikovskyi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 159 of 361
Down 0–1, comes back26% 51 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back8% 9 of 108
Maksymiv1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 154 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it92% 84 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it76% 114 of 151
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChaikovskyi4wins
AwayMaksymiv6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMaksymiv leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChaikovskyin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMaksymiv60%6 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chaikovskyi0Maksymiv10n = 10Maksymiv took 10 of 10
S2Chaikovskyi6Maksymiv4n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S3Chaikovskyi6Maksymiv4n = 10Chaikovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Chaikovskyi4Maksymiv3n = 7Chaikovskyi took 4 of 7
S5Chaikovskyi1Maksymiv2n = 3Maksymiv took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricChaikovskyiMaksymivC − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match35.139.4−4.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChaikovskyiMaksymivBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 729 vs 455 / 75651%60.2%372 / 729 vs 455 / 756Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymivChaikovskyi 2.20/Maksymiv 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.3%
Maksymiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chaikovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 07:35B. Chaikovskyi—5240S. Maksymiv—1111113
WAug 19 · 12:35B. Chaikovskyi—81113133S. Maksymiv—11811111
LAug 19 · 01:00B. Chaikovskyi—61111562S. Maksymiv—116611113
WAug 13 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi—61111123S. Maksymiv—1186101
LAug 12 · 15:05B. Chaikovskyi—7670S. Maksymiv—1111113
WAug 11 · 20:00B. Chaikovskyi—81111113S. Maksymiv—117771
LJul 30 · 05:05B. Chaikovskyi—9111191S. Maksymiv—11136113
LJul 29 · 18:05B. Chaikovskyi—8160S. Maksymiv—1111113
LJul 29 · 24:30B. Chaikovskyi—61611772S. Maksymiv—1114711113
WJul 23 · 09:35B. Chaikovskyi—811914113S. Maksymiv—116111272
B. Chaikovskyi10
WSep 6 · 02:45B. Chaikovskyi1.831191110123V. Slozka1.83811712102WSep 6 · 24:45V. Zharskiy1.5311117642B. Chaikovskyi2.38461111113WSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 22:45R. Konkulovskyi1.61751141B. Chaikovskyi2.2011116113WSep 5 · 21:15B. Chaikovskyi1.4411811133V. Krokhmal2.638118111WSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992LSep 3 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661182G. Kuzmenko2.25911116113WSep 3 · 07:35B. Chaikovskyi1.501111113V. Krokhmal2.504740LSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53411511102O. Pohonov2.38118115123LSep 3 · 04:35B. Chaikovskyi2.0011640I. Sukovatyi1.731311113
S. Maksymiv10
LSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992WSep 3 · 09:35S. Maksymiv1.7311812113V. Krokhmal2.005111091WSep 3 · 08:35S. Maksymiv1.67111011113I. Sukovatyi2.10412671LSep 3 · 07:05S. Maksymiv1.361187101G. Kuzmenko3.0061111123WSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191LSep 2 · 17:05S. Maksymiv1.8391171172V. Krokhmal1.83116117113LSep 2 · 16:05S. Maksymiv1.73613911102I. Sukovatyi2.001111115123WSep 2 · 14:35S. Maksymiv1.3641111113G. Kuzmenko3.00113641WSep 2 · 12:35S. Maksymiv1.36111111113O. Pohonov3.00651381WSep 2 · 02:00B. Chaikovskyi2.20119951S. Maksymiv1.6131111113
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