TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061962
Played Sep 2Finished
Serhii Maksymiv
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
61113119111151012
Ihor Sukovatyi
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maksymiv to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingSerhii Maksymiv above · Ihor Sukovatyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 99 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Serhii Maksymiv at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Maksymiv 29–28 Ihor Sukovatyi Ihor Sukovatyi has won 28 of their 57 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Maksymiv
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-28 in 57
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymiv 1744 vs Sukovatyi 1687
Maksymiv
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymiv 60% vs Sukovatyi 20%
Maksymiv
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymiv 60% vs Sukovatyi 40%
Maksymiv
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymiv +3 · Sukovatyi -2
Maksymiv
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Maksymiv) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sukovatyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymiv 1.73 / Sukovatyi 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Maksymiv)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13061962
Maksymiv1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 154 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it92% 84 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it76% 114 of 151
Sukovatyi2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 53 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymiv5wins
AwaySukovatyi5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymiv100%4 of 4
AwaySukovatyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymiv4Sukovatyi6n = 10Sukovatyi took 6 of 10
S2Maksymiv6Sukovatyi4n = 10Maksymiv took 6 of 10
S3Maksymiv4Sukovatyi6n = 10Sukovatyi took 6 of 10
S4Maksymiv3Sukovatyi3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymivSukovatyiM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.734.1−1.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymivSukovatyiBasisWin rate · lifetime455 / 754 vs 262 / 47760.3%54.9%455 / 754 vs 262 / 477Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymivMaksymiv 1.73/Sukovatyi 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Maksymiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sukovatyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 14:35S. Maksymiv—811531I. Sukovatyi—11311113
WAug 19 · 24:00S. Maksymiv—11511113I. Sukovatyi—811661
WAug 13 · 07:35S. Maksymiv—881116113I. Sukovatyi—111171472
LAug 12 · 19:05S. Maksymiv—10280I. Sukovatyi—1211113
WAug 11 · 23:00S. Maksymiv—11116113I. Sukovatyi—561171
WJul 30 · 10:05S. Maksymiv—1211113I. Sukovatyi—10980
LJul 29 · 13:35S. Maksymiv—71060I. Sukovatyi—1112113
LJul 28 · 23:00S. Maksymiv—611841I. Sukovatyi—11311113
WJul 23 · 05:05S. Maksymiv—1111113I. Sukovatyi—8750
LJul 22 · 12:35S. Maksymiv—1211071I. Sukovatyi—14811113
S. Maksymiv10
LSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992WSep 3 · 09:35S. Maksymiv1.7311812113V. Krokhmal2.005111091WSep 3 · 08:35S. Maksymiv1.67111011113I. Sukovatyi2.10412671LSep 3 · 07:05S. Maksymiv1.361187101G. Kuzmenko3.0061111123WSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191LSep 2 · 18:05B. Chaikovskyi2.20313311113S. Maksymiv1.61111111782LSep 2 · 17:05S. Maksymiv1.8391171172V. Krokhmal1.83116117113WSep 2 · 14:35S. Maksymiv1.3641111113G. Kuzmenko3.00113641WSep 2 · 12:35S. Maksymiv1.36111111113O. Pohonov3.00651381WSep 2 · 02:00B. Chaikovskyi2.20119951S. Maksymiv1.6131111113
I. Sukovatyi10
LSep 3 · 11:05G. Kuzmenko2.251111113I. Sukovatyi1.579870LSep 3 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.441111113I. Sukovatyi2.634530LSep 3 · 08:35S. Maksymiv1.67111011113I. Sukovatyi2.10412671LSep 3 · 06:35V. Krokhmal2.381111113I. Sukovatyi1.533380WSep 3 · 04:35B. Chaikovskyi2.0011640I. Sukovatyi1.731311113WSep 2 · 18:35G. Kuzmenko2.50931151I. Sukovatyi1.5011113113LSep 2 · 17:35O. Pohonov1.44761111113I. Sukovatyi2.6311115662LSep 2 · 14:05V. Krokhmal2.6312114113I. Sukovatyi1.441081181LSep 2 · 12:05B. Chaikovskyi2.0011149113I. Sukovatyi1.739121191WSep 2 · 02:30I. Sukovatyi1.571111113V. Slozka2.252940
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