TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060599
Played Sep 2Finished
Serhii Maksymiv
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411113116114––
Gregory Kuzmenko
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeSerhii Maksymiv to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Maksymiv above · Gregory Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 61 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Serhii Maksymiv at 70.4%
61 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Maksymiv 30–11 Gregory Kuzmenko Gregory Kuzmenko has won 11 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Maksymiv
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-11 in 41
Maksymiv
Correct
gap of 19 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maksymiv 1746 vs Kuzmenko 1712
Maksymiv
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maksymiv 40% vs Kuzmenko 20%
Maksymiv
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maksymiv 50% vs Kuzmenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Maksymiv +2 · Kuzmenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Maksymiv)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaksymiv 1.36 / Kuzmenko 3.00
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Maksymiv)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13060599
Maksymiv1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 154 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it92% 84 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it76% 114 of 151
Kuzmenko3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back25% 18 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaksymiv9wins
AwayKuzmenko1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMaksymiv leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaksymiv87.5%7 of 8
AwayKuzmenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maksymiv8Kuzmenko2n = 10Maksymiv took 8 of 10
S2Maksymiv6Kuzmenko4n = 10Maksymiv took 6 of 10
S3Maksymiv7Kuzmenko3n = 10Maksymiv took 7 of 10
S4Maksymiv6Kuzmenko1n = 7Maksymiv took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaksymivKuzmenkoM − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.829.3+9.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaksymivKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime454 / 752 vs 277 / 56760.4%48.9%454 / 752 vs 277 / 567Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.635.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymivMaksymiv 1.36/Kuzmenko 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Maksymiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maksymiv won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 1 · 18:35S. Maksymiv—11115113G. Kuzmenko—741131
WApr 1 · 01:00S. Maksymiv—1111113G. Kuzmenko—5450
LMar 5 · 10:35S. Maksymiv—1155111G. Kuzmenko—91111133
WMar 4 · 15:05S. Maksymiv—11119113G. Kuzmenko—781191
WMar 4 · 03:30S. Maksymiv—1111113G. Kuzmenko—9460
WFeb 26 · 05:35S. Maksymiv—81111113G. Kuzmenko—119891
WFeb 25 · 17:35S. Maksymiv—111011153G. Kuzmenko—8128131
WFeb 25 · 01:00S. Maksymiv—1111113G. Kuzmenko—3560
WFeb 19 · 10:35S. Maksymiv—11711113G. Kuzmenko—511851
WFeb 18 · 18:05S. Maksymiv—881111113G. Kuzmenko—11115712
S. Maksymiv10
LSep 3 · 10:35B. Chaikovskyi2.20881111113S. Maksymiv1.6111113992WSep 3 · 09:35S. Maksymiv1.7311812113V. Krokhmal2.005111091WSep 3 · 08:35S. Maksymiv1.67111011113I. Sukovatyi2.10412671LSep 3 · 07:05S. Maksymiv1.361187101G. Kuzmenko3.0061111123WSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191LSep 2 · 18:05B. Chaikovskyi2.20313311113S. Maksymiv1.61111111782LSep 2 · 17:05S. Maksymiv1.8391171172V. Krokhmal1.83116117113LSep 2 · 16:05S. Maksymiv1.73613911102I. Sukovatyi2.001111115123WSep 2 · 12:35S. Maksymiv1.36111111113O. Pohonov3.00651381WSep 2 · 02:00B. Chaikovskyi2.20119951S. Maksymiv1.6131111113
G. Kuzmenko10
WSep 3 · 11:05G. Kuzmenko2.251111113I. Sukovatyi1.579870WSep 3 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661182G. Kuzmenko2.25911116113WSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031WSep 3 · 07:05S. Maksymiv1.361187101G. Kuzmenko3.0061111123WSep 3 · 05:35G. Kuzmenko1.831111113V. Krokhmal1.835520LSep 2 · 18:35G. Kuzmenko2.50931151I. Sukovatyi1.5011113113WSep 2 · 16:35B. Chaikovskyi1.53911101172G. Kuzmenko2.38116123113WSep 2 · 15:35G. Kuzmenko1.571111113O. Pohonov2.257670WSep 2 · 13:05G. Kuzmenko1.8351111223V. Krokhmal1.831188201LAug 30 · 24:45O. Pohonov2.7511811113G. Kuzmenko1.40811981
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