TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037626
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleksandr Pohonov
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118811119118––
Gregory Kuzmenko
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:05 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeGregory Kuzmenko to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Pohonov above · Gregory Kuzmenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Gregory Kuzmenko at 73.2%
77 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Pohonov 3–10 Gregory Kuzmenko Oleksandr Pohonov has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kuzmenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Kuzmenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pohonov 1711 vs Kuzmenko 1724
Kuzmenko
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pohonov 60% vs Kuzmenko 40%
Pohonov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pohonov 60% vs Kuzmenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pohonov +2 · Kuzmenko -3
Kuzmenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kuzmenko) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzmenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPohonov 2.75 / Kuzmenko 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Kuzmenko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13037626
Pohonov2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 46 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back25% 17 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back12% 5 of 43
Kuzmenko1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 72 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 52 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePohonov1wins
AwayKuzmenko9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKuzmenko leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePohonov20%1 of 5
AwayKuzmenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pohonov5Kuzmenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Pohonov2Kuzmenko8n = 10Kuzmenko took 8 of 10
S3Pohonov4Kuzmenko6n = 10Kuzmenko took 6 of 10
S4Pohonov1Kuzmenko7n = 8Kuzmenko took 7 of 8
S5Pohonov1Kuzmenko3n = 4Kuzmenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPohonovKuzmenkoP − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.243.6−8.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPohonovKuzmenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 471 vs 276 / 56551.6%48.9%243 / 471 vs 276 / 565Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.835.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzmenkoPohonov 2.75/Kuzmenko 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.7%
Kuzmenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pohonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 14:35O. Pohonov—112531G. Kuzmenko—61111113
LAug 21 · 08:05O. Pohonov—9660G. Kuzmenko—1111113
LAug 20 · 12:35O. Pohonov—11791192G. Kuzmenko—811119113
LAug 14 · 11:05O. Pohonov—5670G. Kuzmenko—1111113
LAug 13 · 18:35O. Pohonov—1011391G. Kuzmenko—12711113
LAug 12 · 20:30O. Pohonov—11811982G. Kuzmenko—811811113
LAug 7 · 08:05O. Pohonov—12101271G. Kuzmenko—101214113
WAug 6 · 15:35O. Pohonov—1110166113G. Kuzmenko—912141182
LAug 6 · 24:00O. Pohonov—511117102G. Kuzmenko—119511123
LJun 11 · 15:05O. Pohonov—351171G. Kuzmenko—11119113
O. Pohonov10
WSep 6 · 03:15V. Krokhmal2.00211581O. Pohonov1.7311911113LSep 6 · 01:45O. Pohonov1.731510571V. Slozka2.00131211113LSep 5 · 23:45B. Chaikovskyi1.53551311113O. Pohonov2.38111111492WSep 5 · 21:45V. Zharskiy1.6711241192O. Pohonov2.10611116113WSep 5 · 20:45R. Konkulovskyi2.2051790O. Pohonov1.611119113LSep 3 · 11:35V. Krokhmal1.9111115123O. Pohonov1.804511101WSep 3 · 10:05O. Pohonov1.441111113I. Sukovatyi2.634530LSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031WSep 3 · 06:05B. Chaikovskyi1.53411511102O. Pohonov2.38118115123LSep 3 · 05:05S. Maksymiv1.3611119113O. Pohonov3.00861191
G. Kuzmenko10
WSep 3 · 11:05G. Kuzmenko2.251111113I. Sukovatyi1.579870WSep 3 · 09:05B. Chaikovskyi1.5711661182G. Kuzmenko2.25911116113WSep 3 · 08:05G. Kuzmenko1.4411212113O. Pohonov2.637111031WSep 3 · 07:05S. Maksymiv1.361187101G. Kuzmenko3.0061111123WSep 3 · 05:35G. Kuzmenko1.831111113V. Krokhmal1.835520LSep 2 · 18:35G. Kuzmenko2.50931151I. Sukovatyi1.5011113113WSep 2 · 16:35B. Chaikovskyi1.53911101172G. Kuzmenko2.38116123113WSep 2 · 15:35G. Kuzmenko1.571111113O. Pohonov2.257670LSep 2 · 14:35S. Maksymiv1.3641111113G. Kuzmenko3.00113641WSep 2 · 13:05G. Kuzmenko1.8351111223V. Krokhmal1.831188201
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.